Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and Department of Geography, Environment & Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jul 1;13(1):3800. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31558-z.
The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urbanization in 2018 relative to 2001 has yielded a 100-year average annual global warming of 0.00014 [0.00008, 0.00021] °C. Without proper mitigation, future urbanization in 2050 relative to 2018 and that in 2100 relative to 2018 under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) would yield a 100-year average warming effect of 0.00107 [0.00057,0.00179] °C and 0.00152 [0.00078,0.00259] °C, respectively, through altering the Earth's albedo.
用城市结构替代自然土地会带来多种环境后果，但人们对于过去和未来全球范围内城市化导致反照率变化引起的变暖贡献的程度和范围知之甚少。在这里，我们应用经验方法来量化过去城市化和不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）下预测的未来城市化的气候影响。我们发现，在三种说明性情景下，过去和预测的未来城市化都存在反照率引起的变暖效应。与 2001 年相比，2018 年城市化导致的反照率下降导致全球平均每年变暖 0.00014 [0.00008, 0.00021] °C。如果没有适当的缓解措施，与 2018 年相比，2050 年和 2100 年中等排放情景（SSP2-4.5）下的未来城市化将分别通过改变地球反照率产生 0.00107 [0.00057,0.00179] °C 和 0.00152 [0.00078,0.00259] °C 的 100 年平均变暖效应。
