Xing Xiao-Wen, Huang Lin, Hu Jian-Lin
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Nov 8;45(11):6326-6335. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202311231.
The power industry is the main source of carbon dioxide （CO） emissions in Jiangsu Province and also an important source of sulfur dioxide （SO）, nitrogen oxides （NO）, and particulate matter （PM）. In order to address climate change and contribute to the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality," Jiangsu Province has implemented a series of low-carbon development policies in the power industry. These policies not only reduce carbon emissions but also have important synergistic emission reduction benefits for atmospheric pollutants. Based on the low-carbon development plan for electricity in Jiangsu Province, a baseline scenario （BAU） and four low-carbon development scenarios have been constructed： current policy scenario （CLE）, IEA target scenario （IEA）, accelerated coal-fired power phaseout scenario 1 （STE1）, and scenario 2 （STE2）. An econometric model was used to predict the future electricity demand in Jiangsu Province, and the greenhouse gas-air pollution interactions and synergies （GAINS） model was employed to quantitatively analyze the impact of low-carbon policies in the power sector on the emissions of CO, SO, NO, and PM, which are the major air pollutants in the region. The results showed that the electricity demand in Jiangsu Province has been increasing year by year, with an annual growth rate of approximately 4.01%. Under the BAU scenario, carbon emissions were projected to peak around 2030, with a peak carbon emission level of 462.03 Mt. Under the IEA scenario, it should reach its peak around 2028, with a peak emission level of 380.27 Mt. Under the CLE scenario, the peak would be expected to occur around 2026 at 353.46 Mt. In both STE1 and STE2 scenarios, carbon emissions had reached their peak and were continuously declining after 2020. In all scenarios, the replacement of conventional coal-fired power plants with natural gas （GAS）, nuclear power （NUC）, solar photovoltaic （SPV）, and wind power （WND） showed high synergistic benefits in pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The deployment of biomass energy （OS1） and non-renewable waste energy （OS2） will result in a significant increase in SO emissions. Carbon capture and storage （CCS） transformation of coal-fired power only showed significant synergistic benefits after 2035. The development of OS1 and OS2 fuel substitutes in power plants should focus more on reducing SO emissions, while upgrading and retrofitting CCS technology should prioritize the reduction of particulate matter emissions. The research findings provide a reference and decision-making basis for the synergistic efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the power industry in Jiangsu Province.
电力行业是江苏省二氧化碳（CO）排放的主要来源，也是二氧化硫（SO）、氮氧化物（NO）和颗粒物（PM）的重要来源。为应对气候变化，助力实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标，江苏省在电力行业实施了一系列低碳发展政策。这些政策不仅减少碳排放，还对大气污染物具有重要的协同减排效益。基于江苏省电力低碳发展规划，构建了一个基准情景（BAU）和四个低碳发展情景：现行政策情景（CLE）、国际能源署目标情景（IEA）、加速淘汰煤电情景1（STE1）和情景2（STE2）。采用计量经济模型预测江苏省未来电力需求，并运用温室气体 - 空气污染相互作用与协同效应（GAINS）模型，定量分析电力部门低碳政策对该地区主要空气污染物CO、SO、NO和PM排放的影响。结果表明，江苏省电力需求逐年增长，年增长率约为4.01%。在BAU情景下，碳排放预计在2030年左右达到峰值，峰值碳排放量为462.03亿吨。在IEA情景下，预计在2028年左右达到峰值，峰值排放量为380.27亿吨。在CLE情景下，预计峰值将在2026年左右出现，为353.46亿吨。在STE1和STE2情景中，碳排放均在2020年后达到峰值并持续下降。在所有情景中，用天然气（GAS）、核电（NUC）、太阳能光伏（SPV）和风能（WND）替代传统煤电厂在污染减排和碳减排方面均显示出高协同效益。生物质能（OS1）和不可再生废弃物能源（OS2）的部署将导致SO排放量显著增加。煤电的碳捕集与封存（CCS）改造仅在2035年后显示出显著的协同效益。电厂中OS1和OS2燃料替代品的开发应更注重减少SO排放，而CCS技术的升级改造应优先减少颗粒物排放。研究结果为江苏省电力行业污染减排与碳减排的协同效率提供了参考和决策依据。
