Human and natural factors affect habitat quality in ecologically fragile areas: evidence from Songnen Plain, China.

Habitat quality (HQ) has been progressively degrading worldwide in recent decades due to rapid climate change and intensive human activities. These changes not only threaten biodiversity and ecosystem functions, but also impact socio-economic development. Therefore, a few studies have focused on the dynamics of HQ and its natural and anthropogenic drivers. However, many contributions have failed to reveal how these factors interact to impact HQ, especially in ecologically fragile areas. We estimated HQ in the Songnen Plain of Northeast China, an ecologically fragile area, from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model and explored the response of HQ to the interactions of natural factors (topography, climate, NDVI) and anthropogenic factors (nighttime light index, population density) influencing HQ using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results showed that 1) HQ decreased constantly from 2000 to 2018, and then increased slightly from 2018 to 2020. 2) In terms of spatial distribution, HQ appeared to be highly heterogeneous with a pattern of 'high HQ in the east - low HQ in the center - high HQ in the west' at each time point. The high-HQ areas were significantly clustered in the eastern parts with dense forests, while the low-HQ areas in the central parts were dominated by a large number of man-made patches of agriculture and towns or cities. 3) The spatial patterns of HQ are mainly affected by the interactions of factors including the natural environment and human disturbance. Natural factors had a greater impact on HQ than human disturbance, and human disturbance factors had significant negative impact among all these factors at 4 time points. Furthermore, the intensity of the impact of various influencing factors on habitat quality, as well as the positive or negative effects of these drivers on habitat quality, changed over time. The most important influencing factor was temperature in 2000 and topography in 2010, 2018, and 2020. This study can provide important suggestions for future ecological protection and restoration in similar ecologically fragile areas.