Sloof Albertus Constantijn, Boer Martijn, Vondeling Gerard T, de Roo Adrianne M, Jaramillo Juan Carlos, Postma Maarten J
Department of Health Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Asc Academics B.V., Groningen, Netherlands.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 Dec 9;18(12):e0012713. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012713. eCollection 2024 Dec.
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks, driven by the expanding habitat of the Aedes albopictus mosquito and global climate change, pose a significant threat to public health. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of emergency vaccination using a dynamic disease transmission model for a potential large-scale outbreak in Rome, Italy.
The model incorporates a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) framework for human and mosquito populations, taking into account temperature-dependent mosquito lifecycle dynamics, human-mosquito interactions, and various vaccination scenarios.
Results indicate that emergency vaccination could significantly mitigate the impact of a CHIKV outbreak. Without vaccination, an outbreak is estimated to infect up to 6.21% of Rome's population, equating to approximately 170,762 individuals. Implementing rapid vaccination after detecting the virus in ten individuals and achieving 40% coverage could reduce infection rates by 82%, preventing 139,805 cases. Scenario and sensitivity analyses confirm that even with lower vaccination coverage rates, significant benefits are observed: at 10% coverage, the number of infections drops to 115,231, and at 20% coverage, it further reduces to 76,031. These scenarios indicate prevention of approximately 33% and 55% of infections, respectively.
The findings highlight the critical role of timely vaccination interventions in outbreak settings, demonstrating that even modest coverage levels can markedly decrease the spread of CHIKV. This study underscores the importance of preparedness, early detection and adaptive response capabilities to manage emerging infectious diseases in urban centres, advocating for strategic vaccine stockpiling and rapid deployment mechanisms to enhance public health outcomes.
白纹伊蚊栖息地的扩大和全球气候变化导致基孔肯雅病毒（CHIKV）爆发，对公众健康构成重大威胁。我们的研究使用动态疾病传播模型评估了在意大利罗马可能发生的大规模疫情中进行紧急疫苗接种的有效性。
该模型纳入了针对人类和蚊子种群的易感-暴露-感染-康复（SEIR）框架，考虑了温度依赖性蚊子生命周期动态、人蚊相互作用以及各种疫苗接种方案。
结果表明，紧急疫苗接种可显著减轻基孔肯雅病毒爆发的影响。不进行疫苗接种时，估计疫情将感染罗马高达6.21%的人口，约170,762人。在检测到10例病毒感染后实施快速疫苗接种并达到40%的覆盖率，可将感染率降低82%，预防139,805例病例。情景分析和敏感性分析证实，即使疫苗接种覆盖率较低，也能观察到显著益处：覆盖率为10%时，感染人数降至115,231人，覆盖率为20%时，进一步降至76,031人。这些情景分别表明可预防约33%和55%的感染。
研究结果突出了及时进行疫苗接种干预在疫情爆发情况下的关键作用，表明即使适度的覆盖率也能显著减少基孔肯雅病毒的传播。本研究强调了在城市中心应对新发传染病时做好准备、早期检测和适应性应对能力的重要性，倡导建立战略疫苗储备和快速部署机制以改善公共卫生成果。
