Brown Timothy M, O'Connor Joseph, Genner Martin J
School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TQ, United Kingdom.
School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Dec 17;121(51):e2410355121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2410355121. Epub 2024 Dec 9.
Climate change has emerged as a key threat to biodiversity, leading to broad-scale shifts in distributions of marine and terrestrial species as they attempt to track thermally suitable habitat. By contrast, our understanding of climate responses of freshwater species is relatively undeveloped, limiting our knowledge of whether projected warming will lead to freshwater biodiversity loss. Here, we linked a multicontinental database of riverine fish population abundance time series collected from 1958 to 2019 to temperature data from the same period. Across the sampled localities, waters warmed by 0.21 °C per decade (annual maximum of monthly temperatures). We tested whether fish responded to this change by i) increasing abundance at the cooler poleward limit of species distributions-predicted if warming has opened new opportunities-and ii) decreasing abundance toward the equatorward limit of distributions-predicted if temperatures have exceeded tolerance thresholds. We found that observed population trends were consistent with both of these expected patterns from climatic warming and that the trends were more pronounced in time series covering the longer time periods of 30+ y. The responses consistent with climate change were most evident in species with larger body sizes, higher trophic levels, river-sea migratory behavior, and more widespread distributions. Moreover, positive abundance responses to warming were more likely at higher altitudes where conditions tend to be cooler. These findings indicate that projected future warming will likely lead to widespread shifts in riverine community structure, including abundance declines at the trailing edge of species distributions.
气候变化已成为生物多样性的关键威胁,导致海洋和陆地物种在试图追踪适宜热环境的栖息地时,分布发生大规模变化。相比之下,我们对淡水物种气候响应的理解相对不足,这限制了我们对预计变暖是否会导致淡水生物多样性丧失的认识。在此,我们将1958年至2019年收集的多大陆河流鱼类种群丰度时间序列数据库与同期的温度数据相联系。在所有采样地点,水温每十年升高0.21℃(月最高温度的年平均值)。我们通过以下方式测试鱼类是否对这种变化做出反应:一是在物种分布较冷的极地边缘增加丰度(如果变暖带来了新机会,则会出现这种情况);二是在分布的赤道边缘减少丰度(如果温度超过了耐受阈值,则会出现这种情况)。我们发现,观察到的种群趋势与气候变暖的这两种预期模式均相符,且在涵盖30多年更长时间段的时间序列中,这些趋势更为明显。与气候变化一致的响应在体型较大、营养级较高、具有河海洄游行为且分布更广泛的物种中最为明显。此外,在条件往往较凉爽的较高海拔地区,对变暖的正丰度响应更有可能出现。这些发现表明,预计未来的变暖可能会导致河流群落结构发生广泛变化,包括物种分布后缘的丰度下降。