Jin Yan, Kristkova Zuzana Smeets, Kardung Maximilian, Wesseler Justus
Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.
Department of International Policy, Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, Netherlands.
GM Crops Food. 2024 Dec 31;15(1):1-12. doi: 10.1080/21645698.2024.2438419. Epub 2024 Dec 9.
Postponing the adoption of genome editing (GE) is costly, with lengthy regulatory processes contributing to postponement. Accelerating agricultural research and development (R&D) transfer is important for stimulating sustainable agricultural transitions and enhancing global food security. Using the MAGNET model, we incorporate dynamic R&D accumulation and compare economic projections in scenarios with accelerated R&D transfer. We calculate the cost of delay (COD) from postponing GE adoption. The results show that accelerating R&D transfer in high-income countries impacts economic performance, welfare, and food affordability globally; the annuity of COD ranges from losses of -$1.1 billion (Brazil) to gains of $18.5 billion (Europe). A 3-year acceleration of R&D transfer in all countries benefits middle and low-income countries the most (e.g. China, India, other Asian countries, and Sub-Saharan African countries), with the annuity of COD ranging from -$4.8 billion (Brazil) to $83.9 billion (China). Therefore, streamlining the GE regulatory framework is essential for enhancing food security and global welfare.
推迟采用基因组编辑技术成本高昂，漫长的监管流程导致了这种推迟。加速农业研发成果转化对于推动可持续农业转型和加强全球粮食安全至关重要。我们使用MAGNET模型，纳入动态研发积累，并比较了研发加速转化情景下的经济预测。我们计算了推迟采用基因组编辑技术的延迟成本（COD）。结果表明，高收入国家加速研发转化会影响全球的经济表现、福利和食品可承受性；延迟成本的年金范围从-11亿美元（巴西）的损失到185亿美元（欧洲）的收益。所有国家研发转化加速3年对中低收入国家（如中国、印度、其他亚洲国家和撒哈拉以南非洲国家）益处最大，延迟成本的年金范围从-48亿美元（巴西）到839亿美元（中国）。因此，简化基因组编辑监管框架对于加强粮食安全和全球福利至关重要。
