Lang Weiguang, Zhang Yao, Li Xiangyi, Meng Fandong, Liu Qiang, Wang Kai, Xu Hao, Chen Anping, Peñuelas Josep, Janssens Ivan A, Piao Shilong
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2025 Feb;9(2):261-272. doi: 10.1038/s41559-024-02597-0. Epub 2024 Dec 9.
Climate change has altered the timing of recurring biological cycles in both plants and animals. Phenological changes may be unequal within and among trophic levels, potentially impacting the intricate interactions that regulate ecosystem functioning. Here we compile and analyse a global dataset of terrestrial phenological observations, including nearly half a million time series for both plants and animals. Our analysis reveals an increasing phenological asynchronization between plants and animals from 1981 to 2020, with a stronger overall advancement of late-season phenophases for plants than for animals. Almost 30% of temporal variations in plant phenophases can be explained by the timing of the preceding phenophases. This temporal dependency allows the advancement caused by warming to accumulate and propagate through seasons, advancing later phenophases more than earlier phases. By contrast, animals rely on various environmental cues and resource-tracking strategies to initiate their life-cycle activities, which weakens their cross-phenophase linkage and undermines the effect of warming. Our results suggest that future warming may increase phenological asynchronization between plants and animals and potentially disturb trophic interactions and ecosystem stability.
气候变化已经改变了植物和动物中反复出现的生物周期的时间。物候变化在营养级内部和之间可能是不均衡的，这可能会影响调节生态系统功能的复杂相互作用。在这里，我们汇编并分析了一个全球陆地物候观测数据集，其中包括近50万个植物和动物的时间序列。我们的分析表明，从1981年到2020年，植物和动物之间的物候异步性在增加，植物季末物候期总体上比动物提前得更明显。植物物候期近30%的时间变化可以由前一个物候期的时间来解释。这种时间依赖性使得变暖导致的提前积累并在季节间传播，使后期物候期比早期物候期提前得更多。相比之下，动物依靠各种环境线索和资源追踪策略来启动它们的生命周期活动，这削弱了它们跨物候期的联系，并削弱了变暖的影响。我们的结果表明，未来的变暖可能会增加植物和动物之间的物候异步性，并可能扰乱营养级相互作用和生态系统稳定性。
