Kolářová Eva, Nekovář Jiří, Adamík Peter
Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University, tř. 17. listopadu 50, Olomouc, 771 46, Czech Republic,
Int J Biometeorol. 2014 Oct;58(8):1739-48. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0779-z. Epub 2014 Jan 5.
One of the ways to assess the impacts of climate change on plants is analysing their long-term phenological data. We studied phenological records of 18 common tree species and their 8 phenological phases, spanning 65 years (1946-2010) and covering the area of the Czech Republic. For each species and phenophase, we assessed the changes in its annual means (for detecting shifts in the timing of the event) and standard deviations (for detecting changes in duration of the phenophases). The prevailing pattern across tree species was that since around the year 1976, there has been a consistent advancement of the onset of spring phenophases (leaf unfolding and flowering) and subsequent acceleration of fruit ripening, and a delay of autumn phenophases (leaf colouring and leaf falling). The most considerable shifts in the timing of spring phenophases were displayed by early-successional short-lived tree species. The most pronounced temporal shifts were found for the beginning of seed ripening in conifers with an advancement in this phenophase of up to 2.2 days year⁻¹ in Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris). With regards to the change in duration of the phenophases, no consistent patterns were revealed. The growing season has extended on average by 23.8 days during the last 35 years. The most considerable prolongation was found in Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur): 31.6 days (1976-2010). Extended growing season lengths do have the potential to increase growth and seed productivity, but unequal shifts among species might alter competitive relationships within ecosystems.
评估气候变化对植物影响的方法之一是分析其长期物候数据。我们研究了18种常见树种及其8个物候阶段的物候记录,时间跨度为65年(1946 - 2010年),涵盖捷克共和国地区。对于每个物种和物候阶段,我们评估了其年平均值的变化(用于检测事件发生时间的变化)和标准差(用于检测物候阶段持续时间的变化)。树种的普遍模式是,自1976年左右以来,春季物候阶段(叶片展开和开花)的开始持续提前,随后果实成熟加速,秋季物候阶段(叶片变色和落叶)延迟。春季物候阶段时间变化最显著的是早期演替的短命树种。针叶树种子成熟开始时间的时间变化最为明显,在苏格兰松(Pinus sylvestris)中,这一物候阶段提前了每年最多2.2天。关于物候阶段持续时间的变化,未发现一致的模式。在过去35年中,生长季节平均延长了23.8天。最显著的延长出现在英国栎(Quercus robur)中:31.6天(1976 - 2010年)。延长的生长季节长度确实有可能提高生长和种子产量,但物种间的不均衡变化可能会改变生态系统内的竞争关系。