Li Zhuo, Deng Shuzhen, Ma Tian, Hao Jiaxin, Wang Hao, Han Xin, Lu Menghan, Huang Shanjun, Huang Dongsheng, Yang Shuyuan, Zhen Qing, Shui Tiejun
State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory for Zoonoses Research of the Ministry of Education, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, PR China.
Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 Dec 10;18(12):e0012654. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012654. eCollection 2024 Dec.
Scrub typhus is a life-threatening zoonotic infection. In recent years, the endemic areas of scrub typhus have been continuously expanding, and the incidence rate has been increasing. However, it remains a globally neglected disease. Yunnan Province is a major infected area, and the study of spatiotemporal and seasonal variation scrub typhus in this region is crucial for the prevention and control of the disease.
METHODS/RESULTS: We collected surveillance data on scrub typhus cases in Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2022. Using methods such as spatial trend analysis, Moran's I, and retrospective temporal scan statistics, the spatial and seasonal changes of scrub typhus were analyzed. The study period recorded 71,068 reported cases of scrub typhus in Yunnan Province, with the annual incidence rate sharply increasing (P<0.001). Approximately 93.38% of cases are concentrated in June to November (P = 0.001). Nearly 98.0% of counties were affected. The center of gravity of incidence migrates in a south and west direction. The incidence of scrub typhus was positively correlated spatially, and the spatial clustering distribution was significant. The most likely spatial cluster of cases (relative risk = 14.09, P<0.001) was distributed in Lincang, Dehong, Baoshan, Banna, and Puer. Significant positive correlations between the number of scrub typhus cases and average temperature, precipitation and relative humidity.
In Yunnan Province, scrub typhus is widely transmitted, with an increasing incidence, and it exhibits distinct seasonal characteristics (from June to November). The center of gravity of incidence has shifted to the south and west, with higher incidence rates observed in border regions. The risk clustering regions encompass all border prefectures. This pattern is significantly correlated with climatic factors such as average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The relevant departments should strengthen the monitoring of scrub typhus, formulate prevention and control strategies, and provide health education to local residents.
恙虫病是一种危及生命的人畜共患感染病。近年来，恙虫病的流行区域不断扩大，发病率持续上升。然而，它仍然是一种全球被忽视的疾病。云南省是主要的感染地区，研究该地区恙虫病的时空和季节变化对于疾病的预防和控制至关重要。
方法/结果：我们收集了云南省2006年至2022年恙虫病病例的监测数据。采用空间趋势分析、莫兰指数（Moran's I）和回顾性时间扫描统计等方法，分析了恙虫病的空间和季节变化。研究期间，云南省报告了71068例恙虫病病例，年发病率急剧上升（P<0.001）。约93.38%的病例集中在6月至11月（P = 0.001）。近98.0%的县受到影响。发病重心向西南方向迁移。恙虫病发病率在空间上呈正相关，空间聚集分布显著。病例最可能的空间聚集区（相对风险=14.09，P<0.001）分布在临沧、德宏、保山、版纳和普洱。恙虫病病例数与平均温度、降水量和相对湿度之间存在显著正相关。
在云南省，恙虫病传播广泛，发病率上升，呈现出明显的季节性特征（6月至11月）。发病重心已转移至西南部，边境地区发病率较高。风险聚集区涵盖所有边境州市。这种模式与平均温度、降水量和相对湿度等气候因素显著相关。相关部门应加强对恙虫病的监测，制定防控策略，并对当地居民进行健康教育。
