Sun Y, Shi C, Li X L, Fang L Q, Cao W C
Center of Disease Control and Prevention of Jinan Military Region, Chinese People's Liberation Army, Jinan 250014, China.
Shandong Management University, Jinan 250357, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Jan 10;39(1):54-57. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.01.011.
To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhu and influencing factors in Yunnan province, and provide further information for the prevention and control of scrub typhus. Based on the incidence data of scrub typhus reported in Yunnan from 2006 to 2013, the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus were analyzed and related environmental factors were identified with panel negative binomial regression model. A total of 8 980 scrub typhus cases were reported during 2006-2013 in Yunnan. The average annual incidence was 2.46/100 000, with an uptrend observed. Natural focus expansion was found, affecting 71.3% of the counties in 2013. The epidemic mainly occurred in summer and autumn with the incidence peak during July-October. The annual incidence was higher in females than in males. More cases occurred in children and farmers, the proportions of cases in farmers and pre-school aged children showed an obvious increase. Panel negative binomial regression model indicated that the transmission risk of scrub typhus was positive associated with monthly temperature and monthly relative humidity. Furthermore, an "U" pattern between the risk and the increased coverage of cropland and grassland as well as an "inverted-U" pattern between the risk and increased coverage of shrub were observed. It is necessary to strengthen the scrub typhus surveillance in warm and moist areas as well as the areas with high coverage of cropland and grassland in Yunnan, and the health education in children and farmers who are at high risk.
为了解云南省恙虫病的流行病学特征及影响因素，为恙虫病的防控提供依据。基于云南省2006 - 2013年报告的恙虫病发病数据，分析恙虫病的流行病学特征，并采用面板负二项回归模型识别相关环境因素。2006 - 2013年云南省共报告恙虫病病例8980例。年平均发病率为2.46/10万，呈上升趋势。发现自然疫源地范围扩大，2013年波及71.3%的县。疫情主要发生在夏秋季节，发病高峰在7 - 10月。女性年发病率高于男性。儿童和农民发病较多，农民和学龄前儿童的发病比例呈明显上升趋势。面板负二项回归模型表明，恙虫病的传播风险与月气温和月相对湿度呈正相关。此外，发现风险与耕地和草地覆盖率增加呈“U”型关系，与灌木覆盖率增加呈“倒U”型关系。有必要加强云南省温暖湿润地区以及耕地和草地覆盖率高的地区的恙虫病监测，以及对高危儿童和农民的健康教育。
