Lu Ming, Lu Bin, Wang Le
National Center for Pediatric Cancer Surveillance, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children's Health, Beijing, BJ, China.
Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, BJ, China.
J Phys Act Health. 2024 Dec 10;22(3):307-316. doi: 10.1123/jpah.2024-0201. Print 2025 Mar 1.
To analyze global trends in the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) burden attributable to low physical activity, considering the impacts of population aging and growth.
Based on the Global Burden Disease 2019 Study, the NCDs-related death and disability-adjusted life years attributable to low physical activity (defined as <3000 metabolic equivalent-min/wk) were obtained from 2010 to 2019. The average annual percent change was calculated using the joinpoint analysis. Decomposition analysis was applied to assess the separated contributions of 3 components (population aging, population growth, and death change due to all other factors) on the overall change in NCDs death attributed to low physical activity.
From 2010 to 2019, the average annual percent change of age-standardized rates of NCDs due to low physical activity was -0.09% for death and -0.06% for disability-adjusted life years. However, the global absolute number of deaths from NCDs attributable to low physical activity increased from 672,215 to 831,502, and disability-adjusted life years rose from 12,813,793 to 15,747,938. This rise was largely driven by population aging and growth, contributing to a 13.0% and 14.7% increase, respectively. The most significant impact of population aging on NCD deaths was observed in high-middle socio-demographic index countries (17.6%), whereas population growth had the greatest effect in low socio-demographic index countries (24.3%).
The reduction in NCDs death rates attributed to low physical activity is insufficient to counteract the effects of population aging and growth. Targeted interventions for physical activity promotion should focus on the older population with special attention to diseases most sensitive to physical inactivity.
考虑到人口老龄化和增长的影响，分析归因于低体力活动的非传染性疾病（NCD）负担的全球趋势。
基于《2019年全球疾病负担研究》，获取2010年至2019年归因于低体力活动（定义为<3000代谢当量-分钟/周）的与非传染性疾病相关的死亡人数和伤残调整生命年。使用Joinpoint分析计算年均百分比变化。应用分解分析来评估三个组成部分（人口老龄化、人口增长以及所有其他因素导致的死亡变化）对归因于低体力活动的非传染性疾病死亡总体变化的单独贡献。
2010年至2019年，归因于低体力活动的非传染性疾病年龄标准化死亡率的年均百分比变化，死亡方面为-0.09%，伤残调整生命年方面为-0.06%。然而，全球归因于低体力活动的非传染性疾病死亡绝对数从672,215例增加到831,502例，伤残调整生命年从12,813,793增加到15,747,938。这种增长主要由人口老龄化和增长推动，分别导致增加了13.0%和14.7%。在高中社会人口指数国家观察到人口老龄化对非传染性疾病死亡的影响最为显著（17.6%），而人口增长在低社会人口指数国家的影响最大（24.3%）。
归因于低体力活动的非传染性疾病死亡率的下降不足以抵消人口老龄化和增长的影响。促进体力活动的针对性干预应侧重于老年人群体，并特别关注对缺乏体力活动最敏感的疾病。
