Wang Shichun, Yan Jie, Song Min, Xue Zhenrui, Wang Zerong, Diao Ronghua, Liu Qi, Ruan Qianying, Yao Chunyan
Department of Blood Transfusion, First Affiliated Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, P.R. China.
State Key Laboratory of Trauma and Chemical Poisoning, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, P.R China.
Epidemiol Infect. 2024 Dec 11;152:e167. doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001638.
This study aimed to develop a predictive tool for identifying individuals with high antibody titers crucial for recruiting COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) donors and to assess the quality and storage changes of CCP. A convenience sample of 110 plasma donors was recruited, of which 75 met the study criteria. Using univariate logistic regression and random forest, 6 significant factors were identified, leading to the development of a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated the nomogram's discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. The nomogram indicated that females aged 18 to 26, blood type O, receiving 1 to 2 COVID-19 vaccine doses, experiencing 2 symptoms during infection, and donating plasma 41 to 150 days after symptom onset had higher likelihoods of high antibody titres. Nomogram's AUC was 0.853 with good calibration. DCA showed clinical benefit within 9% ~ 90% thresholds. CCP quality was qualified, with stable antibody titres over 6 months ( > 0.05). These findings highlight developing predictive tools to identify suitable CCP donors and emphasize the stability of CCP quality over time, suggesting its potential for long-term storage.
本研究旨在开发一种预测工具，用于识别具有高抗体滴度的个体，这对于招募新冠康复期血浆（CCP）捐献者至关重要，并评估CCP的质量和储存变化。招募了110名血浆捐献者的便利样本，其中75名符合研究标准。使用单因素逻辑回归和随机森林，确定了6个显著因素，从而开发出一种列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线、校准图和决策曲线分析（DCA）评估列线图的辨别力、校准度和临床效用。列线图显示，年龄在18至26岁之间的女性、O型血、接种1至2剂新冠疫苗、感染期间出现2种症状以及在症状出现后41至150天捐献血浆的个体，具有较高抗体滴度的可能性更大。列线图的曲线下面积（AUC）为0.853，校准良好。DCA显示在9%至90%的阈值范围内具有临床益处。CCP质量合格，抗体滴度在6个月内稳定（>0.05）。这些发现突出了开发预测工具以识别合适的CCP捐献者的重要性，并强调了CCP质量随时间的稳定性，表明其具有长期储存的潜力。
