Kolanowska Marta, Scaccabarozzi Daniela
Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection University of Lodz Lodz Poland.
Department of Ecology and Genetics Uppsala University Uppsala Sweden.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Dec 9;14(12):e70633. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70633. eCollection 2024 Dec.
Global warming is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity causing not only changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature but also disturbing ecological interactions. The aim of our study was to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution of food-deceptive orchid species whose pollination strategy relies on a strict association with pollinators and co-occurring rewarding Faboideae plants. We used the ecological niche modeling approach to evaluate future overlap of the suitable niches of studied orchid species with the predicted distribution of their ecological partners. Models were made based on two different global circulation models (FIO, CNRM). CNRM projections predict expansion of orchids' geographical range. In contrast, FIO prediction is less optimistic, forecasting species range contraction. The studied Faboideae species showed different responses to predicted global warming with no consistent patterns in how their suitable niches might change. Most climate change projections and scenarios of the future modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns do not predict significant loss of suitable niches of bees (Colletidae) pollinating species. However, global warming has the potential to disrupt interactions between the studied orchids and their co-occurring pea plants by altering the overlap of their geographical ranges which can further disturb pollination success. CNRM projections predict an overall loss of Faboideae within the potential geographical range of . Conversely, FIO projections suggest a less extensive predicted divergence. Our simulations offer suggestions for conservation strategies of orchids and potentially for other species that have a similar pollination strategy. The areas indicated here as suitable in the future for the occurrence of all ecological partners can be important climate refugia to consider in local conservation plans. The approach used in our study can serve as a model for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the strength of the pollination system via food deception.
全球变暖是对全球生物多样性的最大威胁之一，它不仅导致降水和温度模式的变化，还扰乱生态相互作用。我们研究的目的是预测气候变化对食源性欺骗性兰花物种分布的影响，这类兰花的授粉策略依赖于与传粉者以及同时存在的有回报的豆科植物的严格关联。我们使用生态位建模方法来评估研究的兰花物种适宜生态位与它们生态伙伴预测分布的未来重叠情况。模型基于两种不同的全球环流模型（FIO、CNRM）构建。CNRM预测显示兰花地理范围将扩大。相比之下，FIO的预测则不那么乐观，预计物种范围会缩小。所研究的豆科物种对预测的全球变暖表现出不同的反应，其适宜生态位可能如何变化没有一致的模式。大多数气候变化预测以及未来温度和降水模式变化的情景都没有预测到为授粉物种传粉的蜜蜂（集蜂科）适宜生态位会有显著损失。然而，全球变暖有可能通过改变研究的兰花与其共生豌豆植物的地理范围重叠来破坏它们之间的相互作用，这可能进一步干扰授粉成功率。CNRM预测显示在……的潜在地理范围内豆科植物总体上会减少。相反，FIO预测显示预计的差异范围较小。我们的模拟为兰花以及可能具有类似授粉策略的其他物种的保护策略提供了建议。这里显示为未来所有生态伙伴适宜出现的区域可能是当地保护计划中需要考虑的重要气候避难所。我们研究中使用的方法可以作为一个模型，用于理解气候变化通过食源性欺骗对授粉系统强度的潜在影响。
