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使国际期货模型中的预测具有外生性的协议。

Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model.

作者信息

Solórzano José, Hughes Barry B, Irfan Mohammod T, Xiong Yutang, Kwasi Stellah, Ibrahim Abdelrahman, Makhmatova Solikhakhon, Hanna Taylor, Moyer Jonathan D

机构信息

University of Denver, Pardee Institute, Denver, CO 80210, USA.

University of Denver, Pardee Institute, Denver, CO 80210, USA.

出版信息

STAR Protoc. 2024 Dec 20;5(4):103414. doi: 10.1016/j.xpro.2024.103414. Epub 2024 Dec 10.

DOI:10.1016/j.xpro.2024.103414
PMID:39661505
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11683239/
Abstract

Understanding future dynamics and trends in human and natural development is foundational for creating appropriate policy strategies to address planetary and development challenges. Here, we present a protocol for adding exogenous series for key variables, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways, to the database of the International Futures (IFs) integrated model. We describe steps for installing IFs and the SQLiteStudio software, understanding the IFs database, importing series, running the model, and extracting results. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Moyer..

摘要

了解人类与自然发展的未来动态和趋势是制定适当政策战略以应对全球及发展挑战的基础。在此，我们提出一项协议，用于将关键变量的外源序列（如共享社会经济路径）添加到国际预测（IFs）综合模型的数据库中。我们描述了安装IFs和SQLiteStudio软件、了解IFs数据库、导入序列、运行模型以及提取结果的步骤。有关此协议使用和执行的完整详细信息，请参考莫耶的相关内容。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ace/11683239/e0b9d9f2bb02/gr23.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ace/11683239/a5bc25fa9ed8/gr19.jpg
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本文引用的文献

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Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions.针对低增长和负增长情景构建转型政策路径模型，以评估对社会经济发展和碳排放的影响。
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Bull World Health Organ. 2011 Jul 1;89(7):478-86. doi: 10.2471/BLT.10.083766. Epub 2011 Apr 8.