Sellers Samuel
Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.
Clim Change. 2020;163(1):559-577. doi: 10.1007/s10584-020-02824-0. Epub 2020 Aug 23.
Climate change will create numerous risks for human health, including impacts associated with temperature extremes, diarrheal diseases, and undernutrition. Such risks, along with other socioeconomic and development trends, will affect cause-of-death patterns experienced in the coming decades. This study explores future mortality trends using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework, a widely utilized tool for understanding socioeconomic development trends in a world with climate change. Existing projections for GDP, urbanization, and demographic trends based on SSP narratives are incorporated into an integrated assessment model, International Futures (IFs), in order to project mortality levels by cause of death for all countries from 2020 to 2100. Under more optimistic SSPs, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) rise as a proportion of all deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, while more pessimistic SSPs suggest a continued high burden of largely preventable communicable diseases. In high-income countries, significant continued burdens of NCDs are projected for the remainder of the century under all SSPs. Comparisons are also made to recent cause-of-death projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how the IFs and IHME models vary.
气候变化将给人类健康带来诸多风险，包括与极端温度、腹泻病和营养不良相关的影响。这些风险，连同其他社会经济和发展趋势，将影响未来几十年的死因模式。本研究使用共享社会经济路径（SSP）框架探索未来死亡率趋势，SSP框架是一种在气候变化背景下用于理解社会经济发展趋势的广泛应用工具。基于SSP叙述的国内生产总值、城市化和人口趋势的现有预测被纳入一个综合评估模型——国际未来（IFs），以便预测2020年至2100年所有国家按死因划分的死亡率水平。在更乐观的SSP情景下，非传染性疾病（NCDs）在所有死亡原因中的占比上升，尤其是在低收入和中等收入国家，而更悲观的SSP情景则表明主要可预防的传染病负担持续居高不下。在所有SSP情景下，预计高收入国家在本世纪剩余时间里非传染性疾病仍将负担沉重。研究还与健康指标与评估研究所（IHME）最近的死因预测进行了比较，以评估IFs模型和IHME模型的差异。
