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绿色技术创新对中国碳排放减少能力的影响:基于空间计量经济学和门槛效应分析

The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emission reduction capacity in China: Based on spatial econometrics and threshold effect analysis.

作者信息

Wei Wei, Ma Yu

机构信息

School of Accountancy, Henan University of Engineering, Zhengzhou, China.

School of Accountancy, Anyang Institute of Technology, Anyang, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Dec 11;19(12):e0310208. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310208. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Dual carbon targets is the key to sustainable development in China and even the world, so how to achieve green low-carbon economy is a general trend. As an important guarantee for carbon emission reduction, green technology innovation is essential for promoting the development of green economy. The analysis of the internal mechanism of green technology innovation affecting carbon emission reduction will help provide the development direction for green technology innovation, help China's carbon neutrality and carbon peak goals as soon as possible, and contribute Chinese wisdom to the sustainable development of the world. This study innovatively adds the carbon market vitality in measuring carbon reduction capacity, and the study extends the previous carbon reduction capacity to expand the influence of green technology innovation and is more practical, and explores the relationship between green technology innovation and carbon reduction capacity. Based on 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2021, SDM and panel threshold model are constructed to analyze the spatial spillover effect of green technology innovation and carbon emission reduction ability, the threshold characteristics of green technology innovation on carbon emission reduction ability. The results show the carbon emission reduction capacity of Chinese provinces and cities has been increasing year by year, showing the situation of "leading in eastern China, rising of central China, and catching up with western China". Green technology innovation and carbon emission reduction capacity show positive spatial correlation, which is manifested in the fact that green technology innovation not only reduces the carbon emission reduction capacity of the region effectively but also has significant spatial spillover characteristics on promoting the carbon emission reduction capacity of the neighboring regions. Also, green technology innovation have a double threshold effect on carbon emission reduction capacity, which means its influence on carbon emission reduction capacity is obviously strengthened. Based on such study conclusions, it is recommended to build a new pattern of "great synergy", strengthen the in-depth integration of green technology innovation and carbon emission reduction, and formulate green and low-carbon differentiated standards, so as to promote a comprehensive green transformation.

摘要

双碳目标是中国乃至全球可持续发展的关键,因此如何实现绿色低碳经济是大势所趋。绿色技术创新作为碳排放减少的重要保障,对于推动绿色经济发展至关重要。分析绿色技术创新影响碳排放减少的内在机制,将有助于为绿色技术创新提供发展方向,助力中国尽快实现碳中和与碳达峰目标,为世界可持续发展贡献中国智慧。本研究创新性地在衡量碳减排能力时加入碳市场活力,将以往的碳减排能力研究进行拓展,扩大绿色技术创新的影响范围且更具现实意义,探讨绿色技术创新与碳减排能力之间的关系。基于2006—2021年中国30个省份的数据,构建空间杜宾模型(SDM)和面板门槛模型,分析绿色技术创新与碳排放减少能力的空间溢出效应、绿色技术创新对碳排放减少能力的门槛特征。结果表明,中国各省市的碳排放减少能力逐年增强,呈现“东部领先、中部崛起、西部追赶”的态势。绿色技术创新与碳排放减少能力呈现正的空间相关性,表现为绿色技术创新不仅有效降低本地区的碳排放减少能力,还对促进邻近地区的碳排放减少能力具有显著的空间溢出特征。同时,绿色技术创新对碳排放减少能力具有双重门槛效应,即其对碳排放减少能力的影响明显增强。基于上述研究结论,建议构建“大协同”新格局,加强绿色技术创新与碳排放减少的深度融合,制定绿色低碳差异化标准,以推动全面绿色转型。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b3e/11634009/ee6c949f0114/pone.0310208.g001.jpg

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