Li Xia, Wang Zihao, Wang Shaoqiang, Qian Zhaohui
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2024 Nov 28;15:1471653. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1471653. eCollection 2024.
(Arabica coffee) is an important cash crop in Yunnan, China. Ongoing climate change has made coffee production more difficult to sustain, posing challenges for the region's coffee industry. Predictions of the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Arabica coffee in Yunnan could provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.
In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Arabica coffee in Yunnan under current and future (2021-2100) climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) using 56 distributional records and 17 environmental variables and to analyze the important environmental factors. Marxan model was used to plan the priority planting areas for this species at last.
The predicted suitable and sub-suitable areas were about 4.21×10 km and 13.87×10 km, respectively, accounting for 47.15% of the total area of the province. The suitable areas were mainly concentrated in western and southern Yunnan. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, altitude, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, slope, and aluminum saturation were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Arabica coffee in Yunnan Province. Changes in habitat suitability for Arabica coffee were most significant and contracted under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario, while expansion was highest under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. Priority areas for Arabica coffee cultivation in Yunnan Province under the 30% and 50% targets were Pu'er, Xishuangbanna, Honghe, Dehong, and Kunming.
Climate, soil, and topography combine to influence the potential geographic distribution of Arabica coffee. Future changes in suitable habitat areas under different climate scenarios should lead to the delineation of coffee-growing areas based on appropriate environmental conditions and active policy measures to address climate change.
（阿拉比卡咖啡）是中国云南一种重要的经济作物。持续的气候变化使得咖啡生产难以持续，给该地区的咖啡产业带来了挑战。预测云南阿拉比卡咖啡潜在适宜栖息地的分布可为该物种的种植和合理管理提供理论依据。
在本研究中，利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型，结合56条分布记录和17个环境变量，预测了当前和未来（2021 - 2100年）气候情景（SSP2 - 4.5、SSP3 - 7.0和SSP5 - 8.5）下云南阿拉比卡咖啡适宜栖息地的潜在分布，并分析了重要的环境因素。最后使用马克思an模型规划该物种的优先种植区域。
预测的适宜和次适宜区域分别约为4.21×10平方千米和13.87×10平方千米，占全省总面积的47.15%。适宜区域主要集中在云南西部和南部。最冷月最低温度、海拔、最湿季度平均温度、坡度和铝饱和度是影响云南阿拉比卡咖啡分布的主要环境变量。在SSP3 - 7.0气候情景下，阿拉比卡咖啡栖息地适宜性变化最为显著且收缩，而在SSP5 - 8.5气候情景下扩张最大。在30%和50%目标下，云南省阿拉比卡咖啡种植的优先区域为普洱、西双版纳、红河、德宏和昆明。
气候、土壤和地形共同影响阿拉比卡咖啡的潜在地理分布。不同气候情景下未来适宜栖息地面积的变化应促使根据适宜的环境条件划定咖啡种植区，并采取积极的政策措施应对气候变化。
