Li Qin, Li Yin-Long, Guo Su-Ying, Li Shi-Zhen, Wang Qiang, Lin Wei-Na, Zhang Li-Juan, Li Shi-Zhu, Zhou Xiao-Nong, Xu Jing
National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases at Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China.
National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases at Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China; School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.
Acta Trop. 2025 Jan;261:107504. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107504. Epub 2024 Dec 14.
The WHO aims to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem by 2030. Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021), this study assesses the global distribution of schistosomiasis burden to guide policy and resource allocation.
Schistosomiasis burden and social-demographic indexes (SDIs) data were extracted from GBD 2021 study. Smoothing spline models were used to examine the relationship between age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), DALY rates, mortality rates (ASMR), and SDI. Future burden predictions till 2030 were made using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Predictions and their 95 % certainty intervals were used to determine whether the region can meet the target by 2030.
Globally, the burden of schistosomiasis was substantial (prevalence: 151.38 million; DALYs: 1,746,333.31; deaths: 12,857.57) in 2021. Africa accounted for most burden (Prevalence: 84.25 %; DALYs: 87.92 %; Deaths: 87.28 %). Among all age groups, individuals aged 15 to 24 years old bear the heaviest burden in 2021. The ASPR, Age-standardized DALY rate and ASMR were inversely correlated to the SDIs across different super regions (r = -0.72, P < 0.00; r = -0.71, P < 0.00; r = -0.71, P < 0.00) and countries and territories (r = 0.02, P = 0.85; r = -0.48, P < 0.00; r = -0.72, P < 0.00). According to model results, the burden of schistosomiasis in most regions will continue to decline in the future, while it in regions with high-income presented slightly rising.
Despite significant progress, further effects are needed to achieve the 2030 goal across the world. Additionally, the rising ASR of DALY of schistosomiasis in regions with high-income warrants attentions.
世界卫生组织旨在到2030年消除血吸虫病这一公共卫生问题。基于《2021年全球疾病负担》（GBD 2021），本研究评估了血吸虫病负担的全球分布情况，以指导政策制定和资源分配。
从GBD 2021研究中提取血吸虫病负担和社会人口学指数（SDI）数据。使用样条平滑模型来检验年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、伤残调整生命年率（DALY率）、死亡率（ASMR）与SDI之间的关系。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对到2030年的未来负担进行预测。预测结果及其95%置信区间用于确定该地区到2030年是否能够实现目标。
2021年，全球血吸虫病负担较重（患病率：1.5138亿；伤残调整生命年：1,746,333.31；死亡人数：12,857.57）。非洲负担最重（患病率：84.25%；伤残调整生命年：87.92%；死亡人数：87.28%）。在所有年龄组中，2021年15至24岁的个体负担最重。不同超级区域（r = -0.72，P < 0.00；r = -0.71，P < 0.00；r = -0.71，P < 0.00）以及国家和地区（r = 0.02，P = 0.85；r = -0.48，P < 0.00；r = -0.72，P < 0.00）的年龄标准化患病率、年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率和年龄标准化死亡率与SDI呈负相关。根据模型结果，未来大多数地区的血吸虫病负担将继续下降，而高收入地区的负担略有上升。
尽管取得了显著进展，但仍需要进一步努力以在全球实现2030年目标。此外，高收入地区血吸虫病伤残调整生命年年龄标准化率的上升值得关注。
