Strasser Julia, Schenk Ellen, Luo Qian, Chen Candice
Fitzhugh Mullan Institute for Health Workforce Equity, Department of Health Policy and Management, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20037, United States.
Health Aff Sch. 2024 Nov 27;2(12):qxae162. doi: 10.1093/haschl/qxae162. eCollection 2024 Dec.
Since the Supreme Court decision in June 2022, emerging reports suggest that the obstetrician and gynecologist (OBGYN) workforce is moving into states without abortion bans. Using a large national administrative database, we identified OBGYNs enrolling in new states from July 2017 through June 2024. We used difference-in-differences (DID) analyses to estimate the effect of on enrollments by state abortion policy (ban vs no ban). Enrollments in ban states were lower than in no-ban states in most academic years (June-July) throughout the study period. In the 2 years post-, DID models found no significant differences in enrollments in ban states relative to no-ban states. These findings indicate minimal state-level shifts in the OBGYN workforce following . Past research has found that a complex constellation of factors drives physician movement, including state licensure, job availability, income, spousal job opportunities, and social support. While the effect of the decision on the workforce are likely to be significant, the full impacts on the workforce will take years to fully unfold.
自2022年6月最高法院做出裁决以来，新出现的报道表明，妇产科医生正流向没有堕胎禁令的州。我们利用一个大型全国性行政数据库，确定了2017年7月至2024年6月期间在新州注册的妇产科医生。我们使用双重差分（DID）分析来估计州堕胎政策（禁令与无禁令）对注册人数的影响。在整个研究期间的大多数学年（6月至7月），有禁令州的注册人数低于无禁令州。在[裁决]后的两年里，DID模型发现，有禁令州的注册人数与无禁令州相比没有显著差异。这些发现表明，在[裁决]之后，妇产科医生劳动力在州层面的变动极小。过去的研究发现，一系列复杂的因素推动着医生的流动，包括州执照、工作机会、收入、配偶的工作机会以及社会支持。虽然[裁决]对劳动力的影响可能很大，但对劳动力的全面影响需要数年时间才能完全显现出来。
