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绿色增长对能源脆弱性、能源不确定性和地缘政治风险的时间分位数及频率响应。

Time-Quantile and Frequency Response of Green Growth to Energy Vulnerability, Energy Uncertainty, and Geopolitical Risks.

作者信息

Uche Emmanuel

机构信息

School of Economics College of Business & Economics University of Johannesburg Johannesburg Gauteng 234 South Africa.

Middle East University Amman Airport Rd. Amman 11831 Jordan.

出版信息

Glob Chall. 2024 Oct 13;8(12):2400225. doi: 10.1002/gch2.202400225. eCollection 2024 Dec.

DOI:10.1002/gch2.202400225
PMID:39679292
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11637780/
Abstract

The study explains the time-quantile-frequency adjustments of green growth to energy vulnerability, energy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks (GPR) in the United States (US). Novel insights with notable policy implications emerged following the empirical analysis of monthly data spanning 2000 m1-2022 m12. The study implemented the Wavelet Quantile Correlation (WQC), Wavelet Quantile Granger Causality, and the Rolling Windows Wavelet Quantile Granger Causality to understand the dynamics among the variables. Evidence from WQC divulged time-specific positive and negative interactions between green growth and its determinants. Specifically, energy vulnerability dampened green growth more profoundly in the immediate and medium terms. However, in the long term, green growth prospers amidst energy vulnerability. This outcome reflects some policy effectiveness that reduced the negative effects of energy vulnerability for green growth. The effects of energy uncertainties are similar to that of energy vulnerability, with more profound damaging effects in the lower medium horizon of the distributions. GPR dampened green growth in the short run and enhanced it in the medium term, but it reduced green growth more profoundly in the long run. The pleasant effects of energy efficiency and digitalization are observed mostly in the long run, with notable green growth-reducing effects mainly in the short run.

摘要

该研究解释了美国绿色增长对能源脆弱性、能源不确定性和地缘政治风险（GPR）的时间分位数频率调整。在对2000年1月至2022年12月的月度数据进行实证分析后，出现了具有显著政策意义的新见解。该研究采用了小波分位数相关性（WQC）、小波分位数格兰杰因果关系和滚动窗口小波分位数格兰杰因果关系来理解变量之间的动态关系。WQC的证据揭示了绿色增长与其决定因素之间特定时间的正负相互作用。具体而言，能源脆弱性在近期和中期对绿色增长的抑制作用更为显著。然而，从长期来看，绿色增长在能源脆弱性环境中仍能蓬勃发展。这一结果反映了一些政策的有效性，即减少了能源脆弱性对绿色增长的负面影响。能源不确定性的影响与能源脆弱性类似，在分布的中低水平上具有更深远的破坏作用。地缘政治风险在短期内抑制了绿色增长，在中期增强了绿色增长，但从长期来看，它对绿色增长的抑制作用更为显著。能源效率和数字化的积极影响主要在长期内观察到，而在短期内主要具有显著的减少绿色增长的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/c3f21324c79f/GCH2-8-2400225-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/3b398b00d522/GCH2-8-2400225-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/10691d132966/GCH2-8-2400225-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/277747074aa6/GCH2-8-2400225-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/8d994295bf56/GCH2-8-2400225-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/4ec29fd234d8/GCH2-8-2400225-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/c3f21324c79f/GCH2-8-2400225-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/3b398b00d522/GCH2-8-2400225-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/10691d132966/GCH2-8-2400225-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/277747074aa6/GCH2-8-2400225-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/8d994295bf56/GCH2-8-2400225-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/4ec29fd234d8/GCH2-8-2400225-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d0ed/11637780/c3f21324c79f/GCH2-8-2400225-g007.jpg

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