Kagan Alexander, Zwas Donna R, Haklai Ziona, Levine Hagai
The Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Hadassah Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Division of Cardiology, Hadassah Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Int J Epidemiol. 2024 Dec 16;54(1). doi: 10.1093/ije/dyae164.
There have been reports of sharp declines in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to assess nationwide ACS emergency department (ED) visit rates across age and sex subgroups and the general population, with a comparison before and throughout the pandemic's various phases.
A multiple interrupted time series analysis was used to assess 61 349 ACS nationwide hospital visits from January 2018 to December 2021 at monthly intervals. The study period was divided into three periods: January 2018-February 2020 (pre-pandemic period); March 2020-January 2021 (early-pandemic period); February 2021-December 2021 (late-pandemic period). Segmented regression with a seasonally adjusted autoregressive moving average structure was used to build predictive models with an estimated reference trendline (counterfactual).
Over 11 months of the early-pandemic period (lockdowns), the largest decrease in visits was seen in women aged 65 and above, of 18.4% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.86]. The lowest decrease was observed in men aged 25-64, of 7.2% (IRR 0.93; 0.91-0.94). During the late-pandemic period, which included high vaccination coverage and no lockdowns, the largest further decrease was in women aged 25-64 of 20.1% (IRR 0.80; 0.75-0.84) on average.
The pandemic influenced ACS ED visits variably, with substantial declines during phases of high COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Older individuals, particularly women, demonstrated the largest decrease in ACS ED visits, highlighting the need for tailored public health strategies to maintain public confidence in access to critical care during future health emergencies.
有报告称在新冠疫情期间急性冠状动脉综合征(ACS)急剧下降。本研究旨在评估全国范围内各年龄和性别亚组以及普通人群的ACS急诊科就诊率,并比较疫情前及疫情各阶段的情况。
采用多重中断时间序列分析,以月为间隔评估2018年1月至2021年12月全国61349例ACS住院病例。研究期分为三个阶段:2018年1月至2020年2月(疫情前阶段);2020年3月至2021年1月(疫情早期阶段);2021年2月至2021年12月(疫情后期阶段)。使用具有季节性调整自回归移动平均结构的分段回归来构建具有估计参考趋势线(反事实)的预测模型。
在疫情早期阶段(封锁期)的11个月里,65岁及以上女性的就诊下降幅度最大,为18.4%[发病率比(IRR)0.82;95%置信区间(CI)0.77 - 0.86]。25 - 64岁男性的下降幅度最小,为7.2%(IRR 0.93;0.91 - 0.94)。在疫情后期阶段,包括高疫苗接种覆盖率且无封锁措施,平均来看,25 - 64岁女性的进一步下降幅度最大,为20.1%(IRR 0.80;0.75 - 0.84)。
疫情对ACS急诊科就诊情况的影响各不相同,在新冠发病率和死亡率较高的阶段出现了大幅下降。老年人,尤其是女性,ACS急诊科就诊下降幅度最大,这凸显了需要制定针对性的公共卫生策略,以在未来突发卫生事件期间维持公众对获得重症监护的信心。