Qiao Zhongli, Ding Ye, Zhu Yu, Qin Shangren
School of Public Health, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
School of Public Health, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2024 Dec 13;103(50):e40882. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000040882.
With the exacerbation of population aging in China, policies have been formulated to provide elderly medical care resources. However, research on the matching situation of these resources with the elderly population (EP) is relatively scarce. This study collected data on elderly medical care resources and the EP from various provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2017. Using Spearman analysis, the correlation between elderly medical care resources and the EP was explored. Based on geographical concentration, the resource and population matching conditions of each province were calculated and categorized, while the deviation across the nation was measured. Finally, panel regression was used to identify driving factors affecting provincial matching degrees. From 2011 to 2017, the EP aged 60 or above in China grew from 173 million to 235 million, an increase of 35.84%. In contrast, the number of elderly medical care beds grew from 118,000 in 2011 to 135,000 in 2017, an increase of only 14.41%. Although a positive correlation has emerged between China's elderly medical care resources and the EP in recent years, the deviation between the two has been expanding annually. Among all provinces, more than one-third still lag behind in terms of elderly medical care resources. Moreover, the matching degree is closely related to economic levels, with significant differences observed between the eastern and western regions-the developed eastern regions have higher matching rates, while the less developed regions experience lower rates. The driving factors influencing provincial matching degrees have been identified as per capita GDP (β = 0.67, P = .010) and fiscal health expenditure (β = 0.22, P < .001). The matching degree between elderly medical care resources and the EP in China urgently needs to be improved. Economic conditions have a significant impact on the matching degree. To better serve the EP, it is needed to increase investments in elderly medical care resources in the western and northeastern regions, and promote an increase in the matching degree by enhancing per capita gross domestic product and fiscal health expenditure.
随着中国人口老龄化加剧，已制定政策以提供老年医疗资源。然而，关于这些资源与老年人口匹配情况的研究相对较少。本研究收集了2011年至2017年中国大陆各省份老年医疗资源和老年人口的数据。采用Spearman分析，探讨老年医疗资源与老年人口之间的相关性。基于地理集中度，计算并分类各省份的资源与人口匹配状况，同时衡量全国范围的偏差。最后，使用面板回归来确定影响省级匹配度的驱动因素。2011年至2017年，中国60岁及以上老年人口从1.73亿增长至2.35亿，增长了35.84%。相比之下，老年医疗床位数量从2011年的11.8万张增长至2017年的13.5万张，仅增长了14.41%。尽管近年来中国老年医疗资源与老年人口之间已呈现正相关，但两者之间的偏差仍在逐年扩大。在所有省份中，超过三分之一的省份在老年医疗资源方面仍滞后。此外，匹配度与经济水平密切相关，东部和西部地区存在显著差异——经济发达的东部地区匹配率较高，而欠发达地区匹配率较低。已确定影响省级匹配度的驱动因素为人均国内生产总值（β = 0.67，P = 0.010）和财政卫生支出（β = 0.22，P < 0.001）。中国老年医疗资源与老年人口之间的匹配度亟待提高。经济状况对匹配度有重大影响。为了更好地服务老年人口，需要增加对西部和东北地区老年医疗资源的投入，并通过提高人均国内生产总值和财政卫生支出促进匹配度提升。
