Daoust Jean-François, Nemčok Miroslav, Broniecki Philipp, Loewen Peter J
School of Applied Politics, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada.
School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 17;19(12):e0314967. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0314967. eCollection 2024.
Citizens who support a party which enters government are systematically more satisfied with democracy compared to voters who supported a party which ends up in the opposition. This relationship is labelled as the "winner-loser gap," but we lack firm causal evidence of this gap. We provide a causal estimate of the effects of voting for a winning or losing party by leveraging data from surveys fielded before and after new government formations in three well established democracies (Netherlands, Norway and Iceland) were announced in contexts of very high uncertainty. Using a regression discontinuity design comparing citizens' levels of satisfaction with democracy just before and just after their electoral status (winner or loser) was revealed, we find that the impact of winning or losing is undistinguishable from zero. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings.
与支持最终沦为反对党的政党的选民相比，支持进入政府的政党的公民对民主制度的满意度系统性地更高。这种关系被称为“赢家-输家差距”，但我们缺乏关于这一差距的确凿因果证据。我们利用在三个成熟民主国家（荷兰、挪威和冰岛）新政府组建前后高度不确定的背景下进行的调查数据，对投票给胜选或败选政党的影响进行了因果估计。通过使用回归断点设计，比较公民在其选举地位（赢家或输家）揭晓前后对民主制度的满意度水平，我们发现胜选或败选的影响与零无异。我们通过讨论研究结果的含义来得出结论。
