Peleg Kobi, Bodas Moran
Department of Emergency & Disaster Management, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Chaim Levanon 55, Tel-Aviv-Yafo, 6997801, Israel.
Isr J Health Policy Res. 2024 Dec 17;13(1):74. doi: 10.1186/s13584-024-00657-1.
Climate-related disasters have tripled in the past 30 years. Between 2006 and 2016, the global sea levels rose 2.5 times faster than the entire 20th century. More than 20 million people a year are forced out of their homes because of climate change impacts. Rapid urbanization and increasing population density in coastal mega-metropolitan areas will inevitably lead to more large-scale disasters due to extreme weather events, i.e., stronger storms and massive flooding. Despite the inevitability of these events, disaster risk reduction is still locally based in each country, many of which have scarce resources to devote to the activity. It is widely assumed that the global community will respond when a calamity occurs. This perspective article explores the appropriateness of the current international relief and aid paradigm in light of near and middle-term trends in global disasters.
After briefly summarizing the anticipated effects of global climate change, population growth, and progressive urbanization in low-lying coastal and riverine environments on the frequency and scale of future disasters, this paper examines how existing concepts of international relief following disasters are insufficient to address the challenges to come. Current paradigms are tested against selected case studies demonstrating the growing frequency of mega-disasters. For example, in 2010, the world saw a catastrophic earthquake in Haiti, very large-scale floods in Pakistan, a major earthquake in Chile, and heat waves that resulted in the death of tens of thousands of people in Russia and many more in other countries. However, the world exhausted most of its humanitarian aid, responding to Haiti in January of that year. The review closes with a proposition for a new paradigm to re-organize international relief to meet the challenge posed by our rapidly changing world - one that is more adaptable to the current challenges of climate change and other trends that will almost certainly increase the frequency and intensity of disasters.
The future of international disaster aid depends on our ability to foster greater cooperation between the various organizations and donor countries and more seamless cooperation between both groups and the affected countries or regions. Planning and relief operations should utilize new technologies and innovative financing where feasible. A holistic approach that focuses on building large-scale agreements and coordination mechanisms, teaching citizens how to help each other until aid arrives, and strengthening resilience at the local level will equip communities for adaptive action during a disaster, improve coping and long-term rehabilitation, will lead to a more efficient, fairer and more durable global aid system.
与气候相关的灾害在过去30年里增加了两倍。2006年至2016年间，全球海平面上升速度比整个20世纪快2.5倍。每年有超过2000万人因气候变化影响被迫离开家园。沿海特大城市地区快速的城市化进程和不断增加的人口密度，将不可避免地因极端天气事件，即更强的风暴和大规模洪水，导致更多大规模灾害。尽管这些事件不可避免，但灾害风险减少仍以各国当地情况为基础，其中许多国家用于此项活动的资源稀缺。人们普遍认为，灾难发生时国际社会会做出反应。这篇观点文章根据全球灾害的近期和中期趋势，探讨了当前国际救济与援助模式的适当性。
在简要总结全球气候变化、人口增长以及低洼沿海和河流环境中渐进式城市化对未来灾害的频率和规模的预期影响之后，本文审视了现有的灾后国际救济概念如何不足以应对即将到来的挑战。根据选定的案例研究对当前模式进行了检验，这些案例研究表明特大型灾害的发生频率在不断增加。例如，2010年，海地发生了灾难性地震，巴基斯坦发生了大规模洪水，智利发生了大地震，热浪导致俄罗斯数万人死亡，其他国家死亡人数更多。然而，当年1月对海地做出反应时，全球已耗尽了大部分人道主义援助。本文最后提出了一个新的模式建议，以重新组织国际救济，应对我们瞬息万变的世界所带来的挑战——一个更能适应气候变化当前挑战以及几乎肯定会增加灾害频率和强度的其他趋势的模式。
国际灾害援助的未来取决于我们促进各组织与捐助国之间加强合作，以及这两个群体与受灾国家或地区之间实现更无缝合作的能力。规划和救济行动应在可行的情况下利用新技术和创新融资方式。一种注重达成大规模协议和协调机制、教导公民在援助到达之前如何相互帮助以及加强地方层面复原力 的整体方法，将使社区在灾难期间能够采取适应性行动，并改善应对措施和长期恢复情况，从而形成一个更高效、更公平和更持久的全球援助体系。
