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将拨打紧急医疗服务电话作为预测流感样疾病的一种工具:一项为期10年的研究。

Telephone calls to emergency medical service as a tool to predict influenza-like illness: A 10-year study.

作者信息

Bonora Rodolfo, Ticozzi Elena Maria, Pregliasco Fabrizio Ernesto, Pagliosa Andrea, Bodina Annalisa, Cereda Danilo, Perotti Gabriele, Lombardo Massimo, Stirparo Giuseppe

机构信息

Agenzia Regionale Emergenza Urgenza Headquarters (AREU HQ), Milan, Italy.

Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.

出版信息

Public Health. 2025 Jan;238:239-244. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.12.021. Epub 2024 Dec 17.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Influenza-like illness (ILI) refers to the set of symptoms associated with seasonal influenza infection. In Italy, the syndromic surveillance system RespiVirNet uses both epidemiological and virological data to monitor ILI incidence with a weekly cadence. To estimate ILI incidence in real time, several countries adopted surveillance systems which include data from the emergency-urgency (E-U) system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the number of calls for respiratory symptoms to the E-U system and the regional incidence of ILI cases identified by the Italian syndromic surveillance system.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective observational cohort study METHODS: We analyzed data in the Lombardy region for the flu season from 2014 to 2024, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period (from 2020 to 2022). We performed a linear regression analysis considering ILI incidence as the dependent variable and the percentage of respiratory calls to the E-U system as the independent variable.

RESULTS

Statistical analysis showed a positive correlation (r = 0.70), with a statistically significant coefficient of 1.34 (p-value <0.001) and R of 0.50.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed correlation highlights the potential use of prehospital E-U system data in the surveillance systems of infectious diseases by using real-time data, encouraging future research to explore the limits and possibilities of an integrated surveillance system.

摘要

目的

流感样疾病(ILI)是指与季节性流感感染相关的一组症状。在意大利,症状监测系统RespiVirNet利用流行病学和病毒学数据,以每周一次的频率监测ILI发病率。为了实时估计ILI发病率,几个国家采用了包括来自急诊-紧急情况(E-U)系统数据的监测系统。本研究的目的是评估E-U系统中呼吸道症状呼叫次数与意大利症状监测系统确定的ILI病例区域发病率之间的关系。

研究设计

回顾性观察队列研究

方法

我们分析了伦巴第地区2014年至2024年流感季节的数据,不包括COVID-19大流行时期(2020年至2022年)。我们进行了线性回归分析,将ILI发病率作为因变量,将E-U系统中呼吸道呼叫的百分比作为自变量。

结果

统计分析显示存在正相关(r = 0.70),系数为1.34,具有统计学意义(p值<0.001),R为0.50。

结论

观察到的相关性突出了院前E-U系统数据在传染病监测系统中利用实时数据的潜在用途,并鼓励未来开展研究,探索综合监测系统的局限性和可能性。

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