Mwanga Mohamed K, Mirau Silas, Tchuenche Jean M, Mbalawata Isambi S
School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
Institute of Accountancy Arusha, P.O. Box 2798, Arusha, Tanzania.
Malar J. 2024 Dec 18;23(1):378. doi: 10.1186/s12936-024-05213-5.
Under-five mortality in Tanzania remains a persistent issue, significantly affecting both the health and economic sectors. Despite various interventions, the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) remains high, impeding progress toward global health targets. This study investigates the factors influencing under-five mortality in Tanzania, focusing on the gross domestic product (GDP), malaria incidence, access to water, and access to sanitation.
The study employed data sets for Tanzania U5MR, GDP, access to water and sanitation, and malaria incidences from the World Bank for the years 1960-2020. Missing values are generated through the linear trend at point method. To analyses the data, correlation analysis and Bayesian linear regression are employed.
The analysis reveals significant relationships between the gross domestic product (GDP), malaria incidence, access to water, access to sanitation and under-five mortality. Furthermore, an increase in malaria incidences increase under-five mortality by 0.14 (14%), while access to water and sanitation exhibit an uncertain relationship. On the other hand, results show that an increase in the GDP lowers the likelihood of U5MR.
These findings underscore the importance of economic development and public health interventions in reducing the child mortality rate. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 3.2 by 2030, which aims for all countries to accomplish U5MR of 25 or less deaths per 1000 live births. By highlighting the relationships between these variables, the study contributes practical evidence to support efforts towards SDG 3.2, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in both health and infrastructure sectors.
坦桑尼亚五岁以下儿童死亡率一直是个棘手问题，对健康和经济部门都有重大影响。尽管采取了各种干预措施，但五岁以下儿童死亡率（U5MR）仍然很高，阻碍了在实现全球卫生目标方面取得的进展。本研究调查了影响坦桑尼亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的因素，重点关注国内生产总值（GDP）、疟疾发病率、用水情况和卫生设施情况。
该研究使用了世界银行提供的1960 - 2020年坦桑尼亚五岁以下儿童死亡率、国内生产总值、用水和卫生设施情况以及疟疾发病率的数据集。缺失值通过点处线性趋势法生成。为分析数据，采用了相关性分析和贝叶斯线性回归。
分析揭示了国内生产总值（GDP）、疟疾发病率、用水情况、卫生设施情况与五岁以下儿童死亡率之间存在显著关系。此外，疟疾发病率的上升使五岁以下儿童死亡率增加0.14（14%），而用水和卫生设施情况呈现出不确定的关系。另一方面，结果表明国内生产总值的增加降低了五岁以下儿童死亡率的可能性。
这些发现强调了经济发展和公共卫生干预在降低儿童死亡率方面的重要性。该研究为旨在到2030年实现可持续发展目标（SDG）3.2的政策制定者提供了有价值的见解，该目标旨在让所有国家实现每1000例活产中五岁以下儿童死亡25例或更少。通过突出这些变量之间的关系，该研究为支持实现可持续发展目标3.2的努力提供了实际证据，强调了在卫生和基础设施部门进行有针对性干预的必要性。
