Rose Brendan, Kuiper Malouke Esra, Reinders Folmer Chris, van Rooij Benjamin
Center for Law and Behavior, Amsterdam Law School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Erasmus School of Law, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Crime Sci. 2024;13(1):43. doi: 10.1186/s40163-024-00240-8. Epub 2024 Dec 18.
Punitive approaches to deter offending remain popular despite limited evidence of their effectiveness. This study investigated what effect presenting empirical criminological findings about the effectiveness of deterrence to a general public has on their punishment preferences. It builds on earlier research showing that such presentation reduces the public's inclination towards strict punishment. The present study extended this research by exploring whether the impact of scientific evidence on public punishment preferences is affected by crime severity and by exploring cognitive and psychological factors that may underpin this relationship.
Using a vignette study paradigm, a general public sample of 330 participants were asked to make hypothetical punishment decisions to reduce crime (whether or not to double sentences) for one of three crime types that varied in severity. For each crime type, half of participants were additionally provided with a summary of research on the deterrent effect of punitive policy measures.
Presenting scientific evidence reduced participants' preferences for stronger punishment and that this effect remained consistent regardless of crime severity-ranging from burglary to homicide. In addition, we did not find evidence that difference in individuals' cognitive style, negative emotional reactions, perceptions about seriousness, or beliefs about redeemability moderated or mediated this relationship.
This study provides compelling findings that further clarify the circumstances required for scientific evidence to be successfully disseminated to a general public to bring their punishment preferences more in line with the state of empirical science.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-024-00240-8.
尽管威慑性惩罚措施效果的证据有限，但惩罚性方法在阻止犯罪方面仍然很受欢迎。本研究调查了向普通公众展示关于威慑效果的实证犯罪学研究结果对他们惩罚偏好的影响。该研究建立在早期研究基础之上，早期研究表明这种展示会降低公众对严厉惩罚的倾向。本研究通过探讨科学证据对公众惩罚偏好的影响是否受犯罪严重程度影响以及探索可能支撑这种关系的认知和心理因素，扩展了这项研究。
采用 vignette 研究范式，330 名普通公众参与者被要求针对三种严重程度不同的犯罪类型之一做出假设性惩罚决定（是否将刑期加倍）以减少犯罪。对于每种犯罪类型，一半的参与者还额外获得了关于惩罚性政策措施威慑效果的研究总结。
展示科学证据降低了参与者对更严厉惩罚的偏好，并且无论犯罪严重程度如何——从入室盗窃到杀人——这种效果都保持一致。此外，我们没有发现证据表明个人认知风格、负面情绪反应、对严重性的看法或对可救赎性的信念的差异会调节或介导这种关系。
本研究提供了令人信服的结果，进一步阐明了科学证据成功传播给普通公众以使他们的惩罚偏好更符合实证科学状况所需的条件。
在线版本包含可在 10.1186/s40163 - 024 - 00240 - 8 获取的补充材料。
