Klompmaker Jochem O, James Peter, Kaufman Joel D, Schwartz Joel, Yanosky Jeff D, Hart Jaime E, Laden Francine
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Environ Epidemiol. 2024 Dec 20;9(1):e357. doi: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000357. eCollection 2025 Feb.
There is considerable heterogeneity in fine particulate matter (PM)-mortality associations between studies, potentially due to differences in exposure assessment methods. Our aim was to evaluate associations of PM predicted from different models with nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality.
We followed 107,906 participants of the Nurses' Health Study cohort from 2001 to 2016. PM concentrations were estimated from spatiotemporal models developed by researchers at the University of Washington (UW), Pennsylvania State University (PSU), and Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health (HSPH). We calculated 12-month moving average concentrations and we used time-varying Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs).
There were 30,242 nonaccidental deaths in 1,435,098 person-years. We observed high correlations and similar temporal trends between the PM predictions. We found no associations of UW, PSU, or HSPH PM with nonaccidental mortality, but suggestive positive associations with cancer, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease mortality. There were small differences in HRs between the PM predictions. All three predictions showed the strongest associations with cancer mortality: HRs (95% confidence interval, expressed per 5 µg/m increase) were 1.06 (1.01, 1.12) for UW, 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) for PSU, and 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) for HSPH. In a subset restricted to participants who were always exposed to PM below 12 µg/m, we observed positive associations with nonaccidental mortality.
We found that differences between PM exposure assessment methods could lead to minor differences in strengths of associations between PM and cause-specific mortality in a population of US female nurses.
不同研究中细颗粒物（PM）与死亡率的关联存在相当大的异质性，这可能是由于暴露评估方法的差异所致。我们的目的是评估从不同模型预测的PM与非意外和特定病因死亡率之间的关联。
我们对护士健康研究队列中的107,906名参与者进行了2001年至2016年的随访。PM浓度是根据华盛顿大学（UW）、宾夕法尼亚州立大学（PSU）和哈佛陈曾熙公共卫生学院（HSPH）的研究人员开发的时空模型估算的。我们计算了12个月的移动平均浓度，并使用了随时间变化的Cox比例风险比（HRs）。
在1,435,098人年中发生了30,242例非意外死亡。我们观察到PM预测之间存在高度相关性和相似的时间趋势。我们发现UW、PSU或HSPH的PM与非意外死亡率之间没有关联，但与癌症、心血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡率存在提示性正相关。PM预测之间的HRs存在微小差异。所有三种预测都显示与癌症死亡率的关联最强：UW的HRs（95%置信区间，每增加5μg/m表示）为1.06（1.01，1.12），PSU为1.08（1.03，1.13），HSPH为1.05（1.00，1.10）。在一个仅限于始终暴露于PM低于12μg/m的参与者的子集中，我们观察到与非意外死亡率的正相关。
我们发现，在美国女性护士人群中，PM暴露评估方法的差异可能导致PM与特定病因死亡率之间关联强度的微小差异。
