Vidal Sarah Lamas, Lages Daniele Dos Santos, Maciel Isabela Cristina Lana, Leite Isabel Cristina Gonçalves, Coelho Angélica da Conceição Oliveira, Lana Francisco Carlos Félix
Postgraduate Program in Nursing, School of Nursing, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 30130-100, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Infect Dis Rep. 2024 Nov 26;16(6):1098-1107. doi: 10.3390/idr16060089.
Leprosy control remains challenging in Brazil and has been aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
To analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiological scenario of leprosy through the detection rate of new cases, the risk of illness, and the hidden prevalence of leprosy according to high-risk micro-region in Minas Gerais, Brazil.
An ecological study conducted in the health micro-regions of Minas Gerais, using data on new leprosy cases diagnosed between 2015 and 2023. The annual detection rate of new cases, the risk of illness index and the hidden prevalence of leprosy were evaluated. The time trend was evaluated by calculating the annual percentage change (APC) of the detection rate, based on segmented linear regression, considered significant when it showed < 0.05.
The state of Minas Gerais showed a significant negative annual increase between 2015 and 2020 (APC = -7.91; 95%CI -21.76--1.72), and in 2020 it showed an inflection point, with an annual increase of 9.91 in the period from 2020 to 2023. When evaluating the hidden prevalence of leprosy in Minas Gerais, we observed a reduction in the estimates' average from 2015-2019 (2.78) to 2020-2023 (2.00). The state as a whole showed an upward trend in the risk of illness, with the average index varying from 0.28 (medium risk) to 0.55 (high risk).
The pandemic has had a considerable and heterogeneous impact on the detection of new cases, as well as on the risk of becoming ill and the hidden prevalence of leprosy, with repercussions for the control of the endemic in populations. There is a need to implement public health policies that prioritize the early identification of cases and ensure that vulnerable populations are monitored.
在巴西，麻风病控制仍然具有挑战性，并且因新冠疫情而加剧。
根据巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州高风险微区域，通过新病例检出率、患病风险和麻风病隐性患病率，分析新冠疫情对麻风病流行病学情况的影响。
在米纳斯吉拉斯州的卫生微区域开展一项生态学研究，使用2015年至2023年期间诊断的新麻风病病例数据。评估新病例的年检出率、患病风险指数和麻风病隐性患病率。通过基于分段线性回归计算检出率的年度百分比变化（APC）来评估时间趋势，当显示<0.05时被认为具有显著性。
米纳斯吉拉斯州在2015年至2020年期间呈现显著的年度负增长（APC = -7.91；95%CI -21.76--1.72），并且在2020年出现拐点，在2020年至2023年期间年度增长为9.91。在评估米纳斯吉拉斯州的麻风病隐性患病率时，我们观察到估计平均值从2015 - 2019年（2.78）降至2020 - 2023年（2.00）。该州整体上患病风险呈上升趋势，平均指数从0.28（中度风险）变化至0.55（高度风险）。
疫情对新病例的检出以及患病风险和麻风病隐性患病率产生了相当大且异质性的影响，对人群中地方病的控制产生了影响。需要实施优先考虑病例早期识别并确保对弱势群体进行监测的公共卫生政策。
