BACKGROUND

Cancer is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Tunisia. The objectives of our study were to estimate the incidence level of the main cancer sites in Northern Tunisia in 2023 and to dress projections till 2040.

METHODS

The population based cancer registry database of northern Tunisia was the source of cases of this study. This registry uses the active method to collect data from all health services that cover cancer patients of both public and private sectors. Incidence rate projections were established using the age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

In 2023, according to our estimations, age standardized incidence rate (ASR) including skin cancers other than melanoma was of 165.9 /100,000 in males and 141.4/100,000 in females. In men, the five most common cancer locations (apart from the skin) were: lung with an ASR of 37.6/100,000 habitant, colorectal (29.4/100,000), bladder (24.1/100,000), prostate (15.2/100,000) and stomach (6.0/100,000). Concerning females, the top five locations (apart from the skin) were: breast (55.4/100,000), colorectal (23.0/100,000), corpus uteri (9.3/100,000), thyroid (9.0/100,000) and lung (5.8/100,000). By 2040, the incidence rates of colorectal cancer would reach more than the double in both genders. The ASR of lung and bladder cancers in males would be increasing; however, that of stomach cancer would be stable next decades. In females, while incidence rates of breast, thyroid and corpus uteri cancers would reach more than the double in 2040, cervical cancer incidence is expected to be stable next decades.

CONCLUSION

Cancer incidence level in Northern Tunisia place the country in an intermediate level and projections seem to be worrying. Strengthening prevention, screening and early diagnosis are strongly recommended.