Khiari Hyem, Abdelfatteh Yasmine Ben, Mahjoub Najet, Mekni Karima, Chadli Ashraf, Aissi Wafa, Hsairi Mohamed
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Salah Azaiz Institute, Faculty of medicine of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.
Department of Oncology, Jendouba Hospital, Jendouba, Tunisia.
BMC Cancer. 2025 Apr 21;25(1):739. doi: 10.1186/s12885-025-13626-x.
Cervical cancer (CC) is a major public health problem; it is the fourth leading cause of cancer in women worldwide. The present study aimed to analyze trends and projections in incidence of CC in northern Tunisia during the period 1994-2040.
Crude and Age standardized CC incidence were calculated. Joinpoint software was used to dress trends in incidence. Projections were assessed using the age period cohort model.
This study revealed 3092 cases of CC during the period 1994-2018 in northern Tunisia, representing an annual number of 129. The mean age at diagnostic was of 56 ± 12.9 years with extremes ranging from 19 to 88 years old. The crude and standardized incidence rates were respectively of 4.9/100,000 and 5.2 /100,000 women year in 2018. A downward trend in the age standardized incidence rate of CC was confirmed in northern Tunisia from 6.6 in 1994 to 4.7 in 2018 with an Annual Percentage Change (APC) of -1.8%, Confidence interval (CI) at 95% of [-2.9; -0.6]; (p = 10). Trends analysis have also described three periods: the first one from 1994 to 1998 with a stable trend. The second period was from 1998 to 2006 with a significant decreasing trend with an APC of -7.2%, CI at 95% of [-13.0; -1.0]; (p = 0.02) and the third period was from 2006 to 2014 with a non-significant APC. According to projections, the number of new cases would be of 2017 in 2040 with an age standardized rate between 3.8 and 5.8/100,000 women year.
Results of this study underscore the need for the application of CC control program in Tunisia, with efforts focused on improving access to and participation in screening programs, HPV vaccination for females and ensuring timely access to effective treatment services.
宫颈癌是一个重大的公共卫生问题，是全球女性癌症的第四大主要病因。本研究旨在分析1994年至2040年期间突尼斯北部宫颈癌发病率的趋势和预测情况。
计算了宫颈癌的粗发病率和年龄标准化发病率。使用Joinpoint软件梳理发病率趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估预测情况。
本研究揭示了1994年至2018年期间突尼斯北部有3092例宫颈癌病例，年均病例数为129例。诊断时的平均年龄为56±12.9岁，年龄范围从19岁至88岁。2018年的粗发病率和标准化发病率分别为每10万女性每年4.9例和5.2例。突尼斯北部宫颈癌年龄标准化发病率呈下降趋势，从1994年的6.6降至2018年的4.7，年度百分比变化（APC）为-1.8%，95%置信区间（CI）为[-2.9；-0.6]；（p = 0.01）。趋势分析还描述了三个时期：第一个时期为1994年至1998年，呈稳定趋势。第二个时期为1998年至2006年，呈显著下降趋势，APC为-7.2%，95%CI为[-13.0；-1.0]；（p = 0.02），第三个时期为2006年至2014年，APC不显著。根据预测，到2040年新发病例数将为2017例，年龄标准化发病率在每10万女性每年3.8至5.8例之间。
本研究结果强调了在突尼斯实施宫颈癌控制项目的必要性，努力重点在于改善筛查项目的可及性和参与度、为女性接种人乳头瘤病毒疫苗以及确保及时获得有效的治疗服务。
