Kang Yating, Tian Peipei, Li Jiashuo, Wang Hetong, Feng Kuishuang
Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China.
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Fundam Res. 2023 Dec 29;4(6):1688-1695. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2023.09.012. eCollection 2024 Nov.
Mitigating methane (CH) emissions from China's coal mines as the largest contributor to anthropogenic CH emissions is vital for limiting global warming. However, the knowledge about CH mitigation potentials and economic costs of Chinese coal mines remain poorly understood, which hinders the formulation of tailored CH mitigation strategies. Here, we estimate and project China's provincial coal mine methane (CMM) emissions, mitigation potentials and costs under various coal production scenarios, by integrating the dynamic emission factors of CMM and key abatement technologies. We find that through continuous coal cuts and available CMM mitigation measures, China's CMM emissions can be reduced by 65%-78% (10.9 Tg-13.1 Tg) in 2060, compared with the 2021 level. CH emissions from abandoned coal mines will far exceed those from coal mining under the 2060 carbon-neutral scenario, especially in northeastern China. It was also found that CMM mitigation is not economically feasible at present, but may be the most cost-effective solution as CO prices increase. All coal-producing provinces can achieve CMM mitigation below 50 RMB/t COe in 2060. Inner Mongolia is identified as a hotspot for CMM mitigation with huge potential and lower cost. Our prospective assessment can provide insights into China's CMM mitigation in response to climate change.
作为人为甲烷排放的最大贡献者，减少中国煤矿的甲烷（CH₄）排放对于限制全球变暖至关重要。然而，关于中国煤矿甲烷减排潜力和经济成本的认识仍然不足，这阻碍了制定针对性的甲烷减排策略。在此，我们通过整合煤矿甲烷的动态排放因子和关键减排技术，估算并预测了不同煤炭生产情景下中国省级煤矿甲烷（CMM）的排放量、减排潜力和成本。我们发现，通过持续减煤和现有的煤矿甲烷减排措施，到2060年，与2021年水平相比，中国的煤矿甲烷排放量可减少65%-78%（10.9太克-13.1太克）。在2060年碳中和情景下，废弃煤矿的甲烷排放量将远远超过煤矿开采产生的甲烷排放量，尤其是在中国东北地区。研究还发现，目前煤矿甲烷减排在经济上不可行，但随着二氧化碳价格上涨，可能成为最具成本效益的解决方案。到2060年，所有产煤省份的煤矿甲烷减排成本均可降至50元/吨二氧化碳当量以下。内蒙古被确定为煤矿甲烷减排的热点地区，具有巨大的潜力和较低的成本。我们的前瞻性评估可为中国应对气候变化的煤矿甲烷减排提供参考。
