Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California, USA.
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.
Sci Rep. 2019 Nov 6;9(1):16095. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-52653-0.
Forecasts indicate that China's non-carbon dioxide (CO) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO equivalent (COe). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China's non-CO GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today's cost-effective and technologically feasible CO and non-CO mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.
预测显示，中国的非二氧化碳（CO）温室气体（GHG）排放量将从 2014 年 20 亿吨 CO 当量（COe）的基准线迅速增加。以前关于中国减少非 CO GHG 排放潜力的研究主要集中在 2030 年之前，或者仅集中在某些部门或气体上。本研究使用一种新颖的基于末端使用的模型来估算在减排情景下中国非 CO GHG 的减排情况，该情景假设今天具有成本效益和技术可行性的 CO 和非 CO 减排措施将部署到 2050 年。研究确定，未来的非 CO GHG 排放主要由工业和农业来源驱动，到 2050 年，中国可以将这些排放减少 47%，同时使温室气体总排放量在 2023 年前达到峰值。除了氟气体减排外，几乎没有国家或部门政策关注减少非 CO GHG。需要政策、市场和其他机构支持来实现本研究确定的具有成本效益的减排潜力。
