全新世期间，全球平均海平面可能高于当前水平。
Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene.
作者信息
Creel Roger C, Austermann Jacqueline, Kopp Robert E, Khan Nicole S, Albrecht Torsten, Kingslake Jonathan
机构信息
Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2024 Dec 30;15(1):10731. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0.
Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth's ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels. We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene GMSL and ice volume. We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) GMSL exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5ka, reaching 0.24 m (-3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3.2ka; Antarctica was likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7ka; GMSL rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years; and by 2060, GMSL will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.
全球平均海平面（GMSL）变化能够揭示地球系统对气候变暖的响应情况。冰川学证据表明，在全新世（11.7 - 0千年前）期间，地球的冰盖退缩至早工业化时期（公元1850年）范围的内陆地区，然而此前的研究表明全新世的全球平均海平面从未超过早工业化时期的水平。我们将海平面数据与冰川均衡调整模型集合以及冰后期热比容海平面和山岳冰川演化的重建数据相结合，以估算全新世的全球平均海平面和冰量。我们发现，很有可能（概率P = 0.75）在7.5千年前之后全球平均海平面超过了早工业化时期的水平，到3.2千年前比当前高出0.24米（-3.3至1.0米，90%可信区间）；南极洲在7千年前之后很可能（P = 0.78）比现在小；到2150年全球平均海平面上升很可能（P = 0.9）是过去5000年中最快的；到2060年，全球平均海平面有50%的可能性成为11.5万年来的最高值。
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