Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
Nature. 2023 Jul;619(7968):102-111. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8. Epub 2023 May 31.
The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice). The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
地球系统的稳定性和复原力与人类福祉密不可分，但它们之间的相互依存关系通常未得到充分认识；因此，它们往往被分开对待。在这里，我们使用建模和文献评估来量化全球和次全球尺度气候、生物圈、水和养分循环以及气溶胶的安全和公正地球系统边界（ESB）。我们提出了维持地球系统弹性和稳定性的 ESB（安全 ESB），并将人类因地球系统变化而受到重大伤害的风险降至最低（公正的必要但不充分条件）。安全或公正边界中更严格的一个来设定综合安全和公正的 ESB。我们的研究结果表明，在气候和大气气溶胶负荷方面，公正考虑比安全考虑更能限制综合 ESB。全球量化的安全和公正 ESB 中有七个已经超过，全球陆地面积一半以上至少有两个区域安全和公正 ESB 已经超过。我们提出，我们的评估为保护全球共同资源提供了一个量化的基础，以造福现在和未来的所有人。
