Trachoo Kamonchat, Prathumwan Din, Padasee Darunee, Paopan Supatcha, Chaiya Inthira
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahasarakham University, Mahasarakham, 44150, Thailand.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, 40002, Thailand.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 30;14(1):31973. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-83510-4.
In this paper, we propose an epidemic mathematical model with an impulsive vaccination strategy to predict outbreaks in chickens caused by vectors. The analysis of the model is divided into two parts: one considering impulsive vaccination and the other without it. We determine the basic reproduction number of disease transmission and analyze the stability conditions of the proposed model for both disease-free and endemic equilibria, addressing both local and global stability. The results reveal that the disease will die out when the basic reproduction number is less than one. Numerical simulations demonstrate that impulsive vaccination significantly reduces the number of exposed and infected chickens, leading to disease eradication in approximately 270 days, compared to over 360 days without impulsive vaccination. The existence and non-negativity of the model solutions are also investigated. The susceptible population is considered to be vaccinated. We find that the periodic solution of the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable under specific conditions outlined in the proposed theorem. This highlights the effectiveness of impulsive vaccination strategies in controlling disease transmission.
在本文中，我们提出了一种具有脉冲接种策略的流行病数学模型，以预测由媒介引起的鸡群疫情爆发。该模型的分析分为两部分：一部分考虑脉冲接种，另一部分不考虑。我们确定了疾病传播的基本再生数，并分析了所提出模型对于无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性条件，涉及局部稳定性和全局稳定性。结果表明，当基本再生数小于1时，疾病将灭绝。数值模拟表明，脉冲接种显著减少了暴露和感染鸡的数量，与无脉冲接种时超过360天相比，大约在270天内实现了疾病根除。我们还研究了模型解的存在性和非负性。易感种群被视为接受接种。我们发现，在所提出定理概述的特定条件下，无病平衡点的周期解是局部渐近稳定的。这突出了脉冲接种策略在控制疾病传播方面的有效性。
