Department of Mathematics, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
Department of Mathematics, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2022 Nov 18;150:e207. doi: 10.1017/S0950268822001807.
In this study, a non-linear deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of skin sores (impetigo) disease is developed and analysed by the help of stability of differential equations. Some basic properties of the model including existence and positivity as well as boundedness of the solutions of the model are investigated. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium were investigated, as well as the basic reproduction number, , also calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. When < 1, the model's stability analysis reveals that the system is asymptotically stable at disease-free critical point globally as well as locally. If > 1, the system is asymptotically stable at disease-endemic equilibrium both locally and globally. The long-term behaviour of the skin sores model's steady-state solution in a population is investigated using numerical simulations of the model.
在本研究中，借助微分方程稳定性理论，建立并分析了皮肤溃疡（脓疱病）疾病传播动力学的非线性确定性模型。研究了模型的一些基本性质，包括解的存在性、正定性和有界性。探讨了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点，利用下一代矩阵方法计算了基本再生数 。当 < 1 时，系统的稳定性分析表明，在无病临界点处，系统全局和局部渐近稳定。当 > 1 时，系统在地方病平衡点处局部和全局渐近稳定。通过对模型的数值模拟，研究了人群中皮肤溃疡模型稳态解的长期行为。
