Kim David, Tepe Emre
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida, Architectural Building, P.O. Box 115706, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida, 444 Jonathan and Melanie Antevy Hall, P.O. Box 115706, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jan;373:123640. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123640. Epub 2025 Jan 1.
Sea level rise (SLR) dynamics pose significant challenges to coastal residential markets, including the likelihood of property valuation disruptions and the relocation of coastal populations from areas of high risk to safer inland locales. Understanding its impact on the residential markets of coastal cities is essential for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. Existing studies primarily focus on property prices to observe risk factors, which limits the ability to capture the diverse behaviors and responses of market participants, including sellers, buyers, and lenders, to climate change impacts. Therefore, a more comprehensive analysis is necessary to understand these complexities and inform policy development. The main goal of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the local residential market in Miami-Dade County, one of the riskiest regions due to environmental changes. Unlike previous research, this study accesses both prices as an indicator of sellers' reactions and transaction volume as a measure of buyers' reactions to SLR-associated risks, deepening our understanding of the varied dynamics among market participants affected by climate change. In this research, we examined the data at the census tract level covering years between 2009 and 2020, which enables us to include the effects of socio-demographic factors during periods of heightened public attention to SLR around 2013. We employed a difference-in-differences method to assess how the local residential properties in different SLR exposure levels react to climate change risk. The findings indicate that transaction volumes declined in 2013, preceding a price decline in 2016 within high-risk groups, presenting a notably divergent pattern from low-risk areas.
海平面上升（SLR）动态给沿海住宅市场带来了重大挑战，包括房产估值中断的可能性以及沿海人口从高风险地区向更安全的内陆地区迁移。了解其对沿海城市住宅市场的影响对于制定适应和缓解策略至关重要。现有研究主要关注房价以观察风险因素，这限制了捕捉市场参与者（包括卖家、买家和贷方）对气候变化影响的多样化行为和反应的能力。因此，需要进行更全面的分析来理解这些复杂性并为政策制定提供信息。本研究的主要目标是评估气候变化对迈阿密 - 戴德县当地住宅市场的影响，迈阿密 - 戴德县是因环境变化而风险最高的地区之一。与以往研究不同，本研究既获取了作为卖家反应指标的价格，又获取了作为买家对与海平面上升相关风险反应衡量指标的交易量，从而加深了我们对受气候变化影响的市场参与者之间不同动态的理解。在本研究中，我们在普查区层面检查了2009年至2020年期间的数据，这使我们能够纳入在2013年左右公众对海平面上升关注度提高期间社会人口因素的影响。我们采用了双重差分法来评估处于不同海平面上升暴露水平的当地住宅物业如何应对气候变化风险。研究结果表明，2013年交易量下降，随后高风险群体在2016年价格下降，呈现出与低风险地区明显不同的模式。
