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利用分数阶导数对牛布鲁氏菌病感染疾病进行敏感性分析及发病率控制的动态研究

Sensitivity analysis and dynamics of brucellosis infection disease in cattle with control incident rate by using fractional derivative.

作者信息

Farman Muhammad, Hincal Evren, Jamil Saba, Gokbulut Nezihal, Nisar Kottakkaran Sooppy, Sambas Aceng

机构信息

Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Near East Boulevard, Nicosia /Mersin 10, PC: 99138, Turkey.

Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Campus Besut, 22200, Terengganu, Malaysia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 2;15(1):355. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-83523-z.

Abstract

The farming of animals is one of the largest industries, with animal food products, milk, and dairy being crucial components of the global economy. However, zoonotic bacterial diseases, including brucellosis, pose significant risks to human health. The goal of this research is to develop a mathematical model to understand the spread of brucellosis in cattle populations, utilizing the Caputo-Fabrizio operator to control the disease's incidence rate. The existence and uniqueness of the model's solution are ensured through the Lipschitz conditions, the contraction mapping theorem, and the application of the kernel properties of the Caputo-Fabrizio operator. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the impact of various factors on the disease's progression. This study performs a realistic stability analysis of both global and local stability at the disease-free and the endemic equilibrium point which give a more accurate understanding of the dynamism and behavior of the system. Stability analysis is performed using Picard stability in Banach spaces, and Lagrange's interpolation formula is employed to obtain initial approximations for successive fractional orders. The findings of this study demonstrate that fractional orders, along with memory effects, play a crucial role in describing the transmission dynamics of brucellosis. Sensitivity analysis helps identify the parameters most critical to the infection rate, providing essential data for potential control measures. The results highlight the applicability of the Caputo-Fabrizio operator in modeling the transmission of infectious diseases like brucellosis and offer a strong foundation for controlling disease spread within communities.

摘要

畜牧业是最大的产业之一,动物食品、牛奶和乳制品是全球经济的关键组成部分。然而,包括布鲁氏菌病在内的人畜共患细菌性疾病对人类健康构成重大风险。本研究的目的是建立一个数学模型,以了解布鲁氏菌病在牛群中的传播情况,利用卡普托 - 法布里齐奥算子来控制疾病的发病率。通过利普希茨条件、压缩映射定理以及卡普托 - 法布里齐奥算子核性质的应用,确保了模型解的存在性和唯一性。进行敏感性分析以评估各种因素对疾病进展的影响。本研究在无病平衡点和地方病平衡点处对全局和局部稳定性进行了实际的稳定性分析,从而更准确地理解系统的动态特性和行为。使用巴拿赫空间中的皮卡稳定性进行稳定性分析,并采用拉格朗日插值公式来获得连续分数阶的初始近似值。本研究结果表明,分数阶以及记忆效应在描述布鲁氏菌病的传播动态中起着关键作用。敏感性分析有助于确定对感染率最关键的参数,为潜在的控制措施提供重要数据。结果突出了卡普托 - 法布里齐奥算子在模拟布鲁氏菌病等人畜共患传染病传播方面的适用性,并为控制社区内疾病传播提供了坚实基础。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6a8d/11696726/d0282ecb8f3e/41598_2024_83523_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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