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气候变化在巴基斯坦经济不确定性中的作用:基于定性比较分析的新方法

Role of climate change in economic uncertainty of Pakistan: New approach with qualitative comparative analysis.

作者信息

Usman Usama, Yang Xueyan, Nasir Muhammad Ismail

机构信息

School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China.

Foundation University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Dec 5;10(24):e40889. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40889. eCollection 2024 Dec 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40889
PMID:39759313
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11696654/
Abstract

Globally, the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced. Simultaneously, concerns associated with climate change effects have garnered widespread attention. The motive of this study is to know about the prominent antecedents of climate abnormalities in Pakistan, which may lead to economic abnormality and instability. The core objectives of this research are to: identify the abrupt changes in the climate of Pakistan, know about the level of disruption towards economic conditions due to climate change, detect the aggregate consequences of climate change on the economy of Pakistan, and finally take steps to hedge the abnormalities resulting from the abnormal climate changes. The accomplices employed qualitative methods to gather information. Fuzzy set Qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and semi-organized talks to thoroughly separate each plaintiff's extensive knowledge and opinions. For this study, a sample of 30 experienced economic analysts and climate change experts from Pakistan were chosen. The study's findings verified that several important antecedents, including the nature of climate change abnormalities, are identified in the research. This study explored methods to address these abnormalities and was conducted with professional guidance to meet sustainable development goals related to climate change. Scholars and experts are advised to adopt more systematic approaches to mitigate the risks due to the complex and variable combination situations that led to the climate change risks in Pakistan and the surrounding area.

摘要

在全球范围内,气候变化的影响正变得愈发显著。与此同时,与气候变化影响相关的担忧已引起广泛关注。本研究的目的是了解巴基斯坦气候异常的主要先行因素,这些因素可能导致经济异常和不稳定。本研究的核心目标是:确定巴基斯坦气候的突变情况,了解气候变化对经济状况的破坏程度,检测气候变化对巴基斯坦经济的总体影响,最后采取措施应对异常气候变化导致的异常情况。研究人员采用定性方法收集信息。运用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)和半结构化访谈来全面梳理每位受访者的丰富知识和观点。本研究选取了30位来自巴基斯坦的经验丰富的经济分析师和气候变化专家作为样本。研究结果证实,本研究识别出了几个重要的先行因素,包括气候变化异常的性质。本研究探索了应对这些异常情况的方法,并在专业指导下进行,以实现与气候变化相关的可持续发展目标。建议学者和专家采用更系统的方法来降低风险,因为复杂多变的组合情况导致了巴基斯坦及周边地区的气候变化风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/529f/11696654/68bba0ff0afd/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/529f/11696654/3d1ca2068e0d/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/529f/11696654/68bba0ff0afd/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/529f/11696654/3d1ca2068e0d/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/529f/11696654/68bba0ff0afd/gr2.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jun;29(28):42539-42559. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19718-6. Epub 2022 Apr 4.
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Causes, indicators and impacts of climate change: understanding the public discourse in Goat based agro-pastoral livelihood zone, Ethiopia.气候变化的原因、指标及影响:解读埃塞俄比亚山羊养殖为主的农牧生计区的公众话语
Heliyon. 2021 Mar 16;7(3):e06529. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06529. eCollection 2021 Mar.
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Mapping farmers' vulnerability to climate change and its induced hazards: evidence from the rice-growing zones of Punjab, Pakistan.
绘制农民对气候变化及其诱发灾害的脆弱性图谱:来自巴基斯坦旁遮普省水稻种植区的证据。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jan;28(4):4229-4244. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10758-4. Epub 2020 Sep 16.
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Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Jan;27(2):1334-1338. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06878-1. Epub 2019 Dec 5.
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Oct 22;116(43):21450-21455. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1907826116. Epub 2019 Oct 7.