Celik Esra, Bogueva Diana, Phillips Clive J C, Marinova Dora
Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute, Perth, 6845, Australia.
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of History of Veterinary Medicine and Deontology, Selçuk University, 42003, Konya, Türkiye.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 6;14(1):30555. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81358-2.
Dairy farmers are grappling with serious business challenges, including rising operational costs, labour shortages, unstable milk prices, changing consumer preferences, long hours with minimal downtime and unstable weather patterns due to climate change impacts. Using a telephone-based representative survey and interviews with 147 Australian dairy farmers conducted in 2023, we employed a mixed-method approach combining quantitative and qualitative analysis to determine the challenges and primary concerns of the participants, as well as to explore potential solutions. Four key variables that contributed significantly to a binary logistic regression model of transition intentions were identified, namely: level of satisfaction with dairy farming, openness to exploring other agricultural alternatives to dairy farming, preference to receive financial and/or other support to remain in the industry and preference to receive financial and/or other support to transition into a different form of farming or business. This model accurately predicted the probability that farmers were considering transitioning away from dairy farming and the probability that they were considering staying in dairy farming. This deepens our understanding of the challenges faced by farmers in the Australian dairy industry, and provides policymakers, industry stakeholders and researchers with critical insights to facilitate transition pathways that will enhance farmers' future sustainability.
奶农们正在应对严峻的商业挑战,包括运营成本上升、劳动力短缺、牛奶价格不稳定、消费者偏好变化、工作时间长且几乎没有停机时间,以及气候变化影响导致的天气模式不稳定。通过2023年对147名澳大利亚奶农进行的电话代表性调查和访谈,我们采用了一种结合定量和定性分析的混合方法,以确定参与者面临的挑战和主要担忧,并探索潜在的解决方案。确定了对转型意愿二元逻辑回归模型有显著贡献的四个关键变量,即:对奶牛养殖的满意度、对探索奶牛养殖以外其他农业替代方案的开放性、希望获得财务和/或其他支持以留在该行业的偏好,以及希望获得财务和/或其他支持以转型为不同形式的农业或业务的偏好。该模型准确预测了奶农考虑从奶牛养殖转型的概率以及他们考虑继续从事奶牛养殖的概率。这加深了我们对澳大利亚奶牛行业奶农所面临挑战的理解,并为政策制定者、行业利益相关者和研究人员提供了关键见解,以促进转型途径,从而增强奶农未来的可持续性。