Dul-Amnuay Atthasit, Peansukwech Udomlack, Hanapun Chattarikorn, Sharma Amod
Bhumibol Adulyadej Hospital, Sai Mai, Bangkok, 10220, Thailand.
The Scleroderma Research Group, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, 40002, Thailand.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 6;15(1):957. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-85324-4.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had a significant effect on mortality rates worldwide, with Thailand being no exception. Gaining insights into the impact of pandemic-related mortality is essential for assessing its broader consequences on public health. This study aimed to analyze excess deaths during the pandemic (January 1, 2020-September 30, 2022) and post-pandemic period (October 2022-December 2023) at regional and national levels in Thailand. Expected deaths were estimated using a negative-binomial model, utilizing 2015-2019 data to project deaths for 2020-2021, with adjustments for seasonality. We found that Thailand experienced 76,756 excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a p-score of 5.24%, and 36,126 excess deaths with a p-score of 5.26% in the post-pandemic period. After the pandemic, excess deaths in some provinces were elevated but did not reach statistical significance. Pneumonia was the major contributor to the deaths. In conclusion, Thailand experienced excess mortality during both the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The study has identified regional areas with excess deaths, and further investigation into these findings could support public health improvements and strengthen preparedness for future health crises.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对全球死亡率产生了重大影响，泰国也不例外。深入了解大流行相关死亡率的影响对于评估其对公共卫生的更广泛后果至关重要。本研究旨在分析泰国在大流行期间（2020年1月1日至2022年9月30日）以及大流行后时期（2022年10月至2023年12月）区域和国家层面的超额死亡情况。预期死亡人数使用负二项式模型进行估计，利用2015 - 2019年的数据预测2020 - 2021年的死亡人数，并对季节性进行了调整。我们发现，泰国在COVID-19大流行期间出现了76756例超额死亡，p值为5.24%，在大流行后时期出现了36126例超额死亡，p值为5.26%。大流行过后，一些省份的超额死亡人数有所上升，但未达到统计学显著性。肺炎是死亡的主要原因。总之，泰国在大流行期间和大流行后时期均出现了超额死亡率。该研究确定了存在超额死亡的区域，对这些结果的进一步调查有助于改善公共卫生状况，并加强对未来健康危机的防范。
