Benchmarking lung cancer screening programmes with adaptive screening frequency against the optimal screening schedules derived from the ENGAGE framework: a comparative microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer screening recommendations employ annual frequency for eligible individuals, despite evidence that it may not be universally optimal. The impact of imposing a structure on the screening frequency remains unknown. The ENGAGE framework, a validated framework that offers fully dynamic, analytically optimal, personalised lung cancer screening recommendations, could be used to assess the impact of screening structure on the effectiveness and efficiency of lung cancer screening.

METHODS

In this comparative microsimulation study, we benchmarked alternative clinically relevant structured lung cancer screening programmes employing a fixed (annual or biennial) or adaptive (start with annual/biennial screening and then switch to biennial/annual at ages 60- or 65-years) screening frequency, against the ENGAGE framework. Individuals were eligible for screening according to the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation on lung cancer screening. We assessed programmes' efficiency based on the number of screenings per death avoided (LDCT/DA) and the number of screenings per ever-screened individual (LDCT/ESI), and programmes' effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained from screening, lung cancer-specific mortality reduction (MR), and number of screen-detected lung cancer cases. We used validated natural history, smoking history generator, and risk prediction models to inform our analysis. Sensitivity analysis of key inputs was conducted.

FINDINGS

ENGAGE was the best performing strategy. Among the structured policies, adaptive biennial-to-annual at age 65 was the best strategy requiring 24% less LDCT/DA and 60% less LDCT/ESI compared to TF2021, but yielded 105 more deaths per 100,000 screen-eligible individuals (10.2% vs. 11.8% MR for TF2021, p = 0.28). Fixed annual screening was the most effective strategy but the least efficient and was ranked as the fifth best strategy. All strategies yielded similar QALYs gained. Adherence levels did not affect the rankings.

INTERPRETATION

Adaptive lung cancer screening strategies that start with biennial and switch to annual screening at a prespecified age perform well and warrant further consideration, especially in settings with limited availability of CT scanners and radiologists.

FUNDING

National Cancer Institute.