Yrene-Cubas Robinson A, Perez-Castilla Jesus, Reynaga-Cottle Daniel E, Bringas Maria José, Soriano-Moreno David R, Fernandez-Guzman Daniel, Gonzales-Zamora Jose A
Carrera de Medicina Humana, Universidad Científica del Sur, Carretera Panamericana Sur Km19, Distrito de Villa El Salvador, Lima, 15067, Peru.
Escuela Profesional de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru.
BMC Infect Dis. 2025 Jan 7;25(1):39. doi: 10.1186/s12879-024-10407-y.
Our objective was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru.
Utilizing data from the National Demographic and Health Survey of Peru from 2014 to 2022, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis. The proportion of past-year HIV testing per quarter of each year was considered our unit of analysis. Statistical analysis involved segmented regression with Newey-West standard errors, dividing each year of evaluation into four quarters. Additionally, we applied an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
We included 211,359 participants aged 15 to 49 years. The proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru showed a mean decrease of 8.33% (95%CI: -10.73% to -5.93%) after the COVID-19 lockdown (from August-2020) compared to the previous period (before March-2020). Prior to lockdown, there was a mean quarterly increase of 0.30% (95%CI: 0.21-0.40%) in testing proportion, while after the lockdown, there was a mean quarterly decrease of -0.24% (95%CI: -0.56-0.09%). HIV testing declined in 23 of the 25 regions, ranging from - 23.7% to -3.0%, except in Amazonas and Cajamarca, where increases of 5.3% and 6.8% were observed. Predictions of counterfactual values without the pandemic using the ARIMA model revealed a percentage drop of -9.20% (95%CI: -13.70 to -4.80) in observed compared to predicted values.
This study highlights the decrease in proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru following the COVID-19 lockdown, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions to address disparities and ensure equitable access to testing services.
我们的目标是评估新冠疫情对秘鲁过去一年艾滋病毒检测比例的影响。
利用2014年至2022年秘鲁全国人口与健康调查的数据，我们进行了中断时间序列分析。每年每季度过去一年艾滋病毒检测的比例被视为我们的分析单位。统计分析包括使用纽韦-韦斯特标准误差的分段回归，将每年的评估分为四个季度。此外，我们应用了自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型。
我们纳入了211359名15至49岁的参与者。与新冠疫情封锁前（2020年3月之前）相比，秘鲁过去一年艾滋病毒检测比例在新冠疫情封锁后（从2020年8月开始）平均下降了8.33%（95%置信区间：-10.73%至-5.93%）。在封锁之前，检测比例平均每季度增加0.30%（95%置信区间：0.21 - 0.40%），而在封锁之后，平均每季度下降-0.24%（95%置信区间：-0.56 - 0.09%）。25个地区中有23个地区的艾滋病毒检测下降，降幅在-23.7%至-3.0%之间，除了亚马孙省和卡哈马卡省，这两个地区分别增长了5.3%和6.8%。使用ARIMA模型对没有疫情情况下的反事实值进行预测显示，观察值与预测值相比下降了-9.20%（95%置信区间：-13.70至-4.80）。
本研究突出了新冠疫情封锁后秘鲁过去一年艾滋病毒检测比例的下降，强调迫切需要有针对性的干预措施来解决差异问题，并确保公平获得检测服务。
