Zhou Jiaxin, Li Wei, Ciais Philippe, Gasser Thomas, Wang Jingmeng, Li Zhao, Zhu Lei, Han Mengjie, He Jiaying, Sun Minxuan, Liu Li, Huang Xiaomeng
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 7;16(1):468. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-55720-x.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key negative emission technology for climate mitigation. Some countries have made no commitment to carbon neutrality but are viewed as potential BECCS candidates (hereafter, non-CN countries). Here we analyze contributions of these countries to global climate mitigation with respect to BECCS using an Earth system model with explicit representations of bioenergy crops. Switchgrass cultivation in these non-CN countries can further remove atmospheric CO by 9.1 ± 2.8 and 19.9 ± 5.2 PgC in the low-warming and overshot scenarios, resulting in an extra biogeochemical cooling effect of 0.01 ± 0.04 to 0.02 ± 0.06 °C. This cooling is largely counterbalanced by the biophysical warming, but the net effect is still an extra cooling. The non-CN countries play a more important role in the low-warming scenario than in the overshoot scenario, despite the inequality of temperature change among countries. Our study highlights the importance of a global system for climate mitigation.
具有碳捕获与封存功能的生物能源（BECCS）是减缓气候变化的一项关键负排放技术。一些国家尚未承诺实现碳中和，但被视为潜在的BECCS候选国（以下简称非碳中和国家）。在此，我们使用一个明确表示生物能源作物的地球系统模型，分析这些国家在BECCS方面对全球气候减缓的贡献。在这些非碳中和国家种植柳枝稷，在低升温情景和超调情景下，可进一步去除大气中的碳9.1±2.8PgC和19.9±5.2PgC，产生额外的生物地球化学降温效应0.01±0.04至0.02±0.06℃。这种降温在很大程度上被生物物理变暖所抵消，但净效应仍是额外的降温。尽管各国温度变化存在不平等，但非碳中和国家在低升温情景中比在超调情景中发挥着更重要的作用。我们的研究突出了全球气候减缓系统的重要性。
