Garcia-Amate Antonio, Molero-González Laura, Sánchez-Granero Miguel Angel, Trinidad-Segovia Juan Evangelista, García-Medina Andres
Department of Economics and Business, University of Almeria, Almeria, Spain.
Department of Mathematics, University of Almeria, Almeria, Spain.
PLoS One. 2024 Dec 30;19(12):e0316147. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0316147. eCollection 2024.
For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for 70% to 80% of global primary energy demand. Far from ending this trend, O&G companies continue to be the main fore-runners in providing secure, versatile and widespread energy to the entire world. The relevance of this sector in the economic-financial landscape and the concern for its stability, makes that the high interest of the scientific community to explore the factors that explain the O&G cross-sectional expected returns remains intact. Through a new approach from the Random Matrix Theory, the aim is to know how many are the factors that explain the market performance of the O&G subsectors (upstream, midstream & downstream), and also if the Brent price can be considered an explanatory factor. We will show that for certain periods, Brent becomes the only factor explaining the movements in the upstream and midstream subsectors, while for most of the time the only factor is the market. Other interesting finding is that no significant factors are found for the downstream subsector, except in certain periods. With a purely statistical approach, we show the factors that explain the cross-sectional expected return of the O&G companies, providing information of special relevance for the decision making of investors, executives and politicians.
几十年来，化石燃料一直占全球一次能源需求的70%至80%。石油和天然气公司远未终结这一趋势，它们仍然是为全世界提供安全、多样且广泛使用的能源的主要先驱者。该行业在经济金融格局中的相关性以及对其稳定性的担忧，使得科学界对探索解释石油和天然气行业横截面预期回报的因素仍保持高度兴趣。通过随机矩阵理论的一种新方法，目的是了解有多少因素可以解释石油和天然气子行业（上游、中游和下游）的市场表现，以及布伦特原油价格是否可被视为一个解释性因素。我们将表明，在某些时期，布伦特原油价格成为解释上游和中游子行业走势的唯一因素，而在大多数时候，唯一的因素是市场。另一个有趣的发现是，除了某些时期外，未发现对下游子行业有显著影响的因素。通过一种纯粹的统计方法，我们展示了解释石油和天然气公司横截面预期回报的因素，为投资者、高管和政界人士的决策提供了特别相关的信息。
