Evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures for an outbreak of mycoplasma pneumoniae in hangzhou based on a dynamic model.

For Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infection in schools, the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention recommends nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, school closures, suspension of group activities, reinforcement of ventilation and disinfection for influenza outbreaks. However, there is limited evidence supporting and evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions. On the basis of an outbreak of MP infection occurring in a primary school in Zhejiang Province, a susceptible-latent-overt infected-recessive infected-displaced (SEIAR) model was constructed to quantitatively evaluate the prevention and control effects by simulating the intervention measures mentioned above. With no intervention, the outbreak lasted 143 days, and the total attack rate (TAR) and total infection rate (TIR) reached 75.78% and 95.65%, respectively. The most effective single-intervention strategy was ventilation and disinfection (VD), with a TAR as low as 15.81% and a duration of outbreak (DO) of 61 days. The two- or three- combined intervention strategies, including all combinations with 90% VD, were more effective than the single-intervention strategy. In conclusion, the SEIAR model could effectively simulate the epidemic situation of MP and the intervention effect. For the outbreak of MP, the earlier comprehensive measures were taken, such as ventilation and disinfection, and case isolation, the better control effect would be.