Bardon Paul, Massol Olivier, Thomas Arthur
IFP Énergies nouvelles, 1-4 avenue de Bois Préau, 92852, Rueil-Malmaison, France; Center for Energy Economics and Management, IFP School, 228-232 av. Napoléon Bonaparte, 92852, Rueil-Malmaison, France.
Industrial Engineering Research Department, CentraleSupélec, Université Paris-Saclay, 9 ter rue Joliot-Curie, 92190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London, Northampton Square, London, EC1V 0HB, UK.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Feb;374:123943. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123943. Epub 2025 Jan 8.
Recent studies outline markedly different possible decarbonization pathways for civil aviation by 2050. This paper examines how the key assumptions retained in these scenarios (i.e., the posited deployment of sustainable aviation fuels [SAFs], the projected demand trajectory, and the availability of electric and hydrogen-fueled solutions) affect the sector's future emissions of greenhouse gas. Data for 67 recent scenarios from industry-related, academic, institutional, and think tanks/NGO sources are used to perform the analysis. The results shed light on the shared properties of these scenarios. First, we find a clear consensus on the negative impact of SAFs on residual GHG emissions by 2050, conditioning to a high level of SAF penetration. Second, these scenarios posit a smaller decarbonizing power of biomass-based SAF than that of e-fuel. Third, we find signs of authorship bias in some scenarios. This last finding, therefore, raises concerns about the direct use of these scenarios in policymaking.
近期研究概述了到2050年民用航空显著不同的可能脱碳途径。本文研究了这些情景中保留的关键假设（即可持续航空燃料[SAF]的假定部署、预计需求轨迹以及电动和氢燃料解决方案的可用性）如何影响该行业未来的温室气体排放。使用来自行业相关、学术、机构以及智库/非政府组织来源的67个近期情景数据进行分析。结果揭示了这些情景的共同特性。首先，我们发现，在SAF高渗透率的前提下，对于到2050年SAF对残余温室气体排放的负面影响存在明确共识。其次，这些情景假定基于生物质的SAF的脱碳能力小于电子燃料。第三，我们在某些情景中发现了作者偏见的迹象。因此，这一最新发现引发了对在政策制定中直接使用这些情景的担忧。
