Rau Eli G, Stokes Susan
Tecnologico de Monterrey, Monterrey 64700, N.L., Mexico.
Department of Political Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Jan 7;122(1):e2422543121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2422543121. Epub 2024 Dec 30.
Among the most pressing problems societies face today are economic inequality and the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. In fact the two problems-inequality and democratic erosion-are linked. In a large cross-national statistical study of risk factors for democratic erosion, we establish that economic inequality is one of the strongest predictors of where and when democracy erodes. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). The association between inequality and risk of democratic backsliding is robust, and holds under different measures and structures of both income inequality and wealth inequality. The association is unlikely to be a case of reverse causation. For concerned citizens seeking to understand why so many democracies are eroding and how to stop this process, our study indicates that policies for ameliorating inequality are a promising path forward.
当今社会面临的最紧迫问题包括经济不平等以及民主规范和制度的侵蚀。事实上，不平等和民主侵蚀这两个问题是相互关联的。在一项关于民主侵蚀风险因素的大型跨国统计研究中，我们证实经济不平等是民主在何时何地受到侵蚀的最强预测因素之一。即使是富裕且长期存在的民主国家，如果高度不平等也容易受到影响（尽管国家财富可能提供一定的韧性）。不平等与民主倒退风险之间的关联是稳固的，在收入不平等和财富不平等的不同衡量标准和结构下均成立。这种关联不太可能是反向因果关系。对于那些想要理解为何如此多民主国家正在受到侵蚀以及如何阻止这一进程的关切公民而言，我们的研究表明，改善不平等的政策是一条充满希望的前进道路。
