Schoen R, Urton W, Woodrow K, Baj J
Demography. 1985 Feb;22(1):101-14.
Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital partnership" of the future, which will accommodate informal as well as formal marriages, less dependence between spouses, greater egalitarianism, lower fertility, and higher levels of divorce.
婚姻状况生命表为描述1888年至1950年出生的美国人群的婚姻、离婚和死亡经历提供了依据。简而言之，从最早的人群到20世纪30年代末的人群，结婚时间更早且更为普遍。最近几代人显示，结婚比例下降，平均结婚年龄上升。1980年的时期数据和按年龄分组的累计队列数据表明，初婚持续减少的可能性很大。离婚率一直在稳步上升，最新的队列数据显示，46%的男性婚姻和42%的女性婚姻将以离婚告终。1980年男性的时期数据增加了离婚率可能已达到峰值的可能性，但按年龄分组的累计队列数据并未显示出这种模式。目前的结果与传统婚姻观念正在发生根本变化的观点一致。传统婚姻中，丈夫为妻子提供经济支持和保护，以换取她的陪伴和生育服务。强大的社会压力促使男女结婚，使已婚人士相互提供的令人垂涎的服务在其他地方难以获得。最近的经济变化削弱了维持婚姻制度的社会和经济力量。美国经济发展壮大，劳动力中服务业占比很大，这种增长使女性劳动力机会大幅增加（奥本海默，1970年）。由此导致的女性大规模参与经济活动模糊了传统的性别分工，触及了传统婚姻“契约”的核心。与此同时，经济变化通过鼓励低生育率、强调成就而非出身特征以及促进地域流动，削弱了家庭纽带（古德，1970年）。过去的“婚姻联盟”可能正在让位于未来的“婚姻伙伴关系”，这种关系将包容非正式婚姻和正式婚姻，配偶之间的依赖减少，更加平等，生育率更低，离婚率更高。
